The New York area has not experienced a hurricane since 1985, and the last direct hit on Manhattan was way back in the 1800s.
Posted on 06/29/2006 8:18:29 AM PDT by NYer
Saving New York From A Major HurricaneThe New York area has not experienced a hurricane since 1985, and the last direct hit on Manhattan was way back in the 1800s. |
The plan provides for the potential evacuation of up to three million residents and shelter for more than 600,000 people in the worst-case scenario of a major hurricane strike.
The fruit of a nine-month review, it also included lessons learned from the disaster of Hurricane Katrina, such as provisions for individuals with limited mobility and other special needs, as well as hospitals and nursing homes.
"In the event of a coastal emergency, we have to be fully prepared to respond to the needs of residents, particularly those in low-lying areas, to ensure that we leave no one behind," said Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
New York City is particularly vulnerable to storm surge due to a geographic characteristic called the "New York bight" -- a sharp bend in the Atlantic coastline where New York and New Jersey meet.
The bight amplifies the effects of a storm surge and can create severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with normal high tides.
The New York area has not experienced a hurricane since 1985, and the last direct hit on Manhattan was way back in the 1800s.
But midway through a roughly 25-year cycle of warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean, forecasters say the northeast US coast is statistically overdue for a hurricane visit.
According to a recent report in the New Scientist magazine, the storm surge from a major hurricane making landfall close to the city could raise local sea levels by as much as eight meters (25 feet).
That scenario could result in lower Manhattan, including Wall Street, being swamped, along with parts of Brooklyn and Jersey City, New Jersey.
In total, more than 250 square kilometers (95 square miles) might be affected, causing the evacuation of 2.2 million people from New York City alone.
What, NY isn't wasting enough tax payers' dollars?
| What's In Store For New York's Future? |
According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:
A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current New York State coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One must remember that in 1938, Long Island was mostly undeveloped. The next time a major hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-urbanized region. The last two hurricanes were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob (category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long Island and moved into southeastern New England. Because most of Long Island was on the western side of the storm, winds were category 1 strength and the storm surge was minimal.
September 27, 1985, Hurricane Gloria (category 2*) moved across the center of Long Island causing much tree damage and beach erosion. In informal surveys, most people believe that this was a "major hurricane" in the category 3 class when in fact it was a moderate category 2 event. Therefore, there is a misguided sense that Long Island can withstand "strong" hurricanes with only minor inconveniences because few have ever experienced a major hurricane.
*Hurricane category is typically assigned based on the maximum sustained wind speed. Gloria hit Long Island with a maximum sustained wind speed of 85 mph which meant it was officially assigned to category 1. However, due to the rapid forward speed of the storm, winds to the east of the eye were 110+ mph which would place Gloria as a category 2/3 storm. Therefore, Hurricane Gloria is now officially considered a category 2 storm. (Thank you to Kathleen Nolan for notifying me of this upgrade in category after the fact.) 
Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division, and Roger A. Pielke, a social scientist at NCAR, looked at the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record and predicted the cost if these storms were to hit today. The diagram to the right shows quite clearly that the northeast U.S., especially the Long Island and New York City regions, would suffer greatly. Of the 15 "worst" storms, Long Island would be affected by five of them and the 1938 hurricane today would be considered the 6th costliest of all time. In 1998 dollars, the damage would be nearly $18 billion. Of all the natural disasters in the United States, hurricanes account for about two-thirds of the insured property losses (USGS, 1998).
Coastal New York state is second only behind Florida for the amount of insured coastal property (Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction (IIPLR) and Insurance Research Council, 1995) so future hurricanes may have severe economic impact.
Click the graph to the left for larger view.
Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City is considered the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers, the city has some unique and potentially lethal features. New York's major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington are so high that they would experience hurricane force winds well before those winds were felt at sea-level locations. Therefore, these escape routes would have to be closed well before ground-level bridges (Time, 1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island Sound would also be shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the waters around Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.
A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).
Some of the key observations from the storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:
Given public complacency, the amount of people needed to evacuate, the few evacuation routes off Long Island, and the considerable area affected by storm surge, more lead-time is needed for a proper evacuation than in other parts of the country. However, east coast hurricanes are normally caught up in the very fast winds aloft, called the jet stream, so they can move up the coast at great speeds - much faster than hurricanes that impact the southern U.S. In fact, the 1938 Hurricane moved at forward speeds in excess of 60 mph. To this day the Long Island Express holds the forward speed record for any Atlantic hurricane.
Surviving "Day One" of the hurricane is only part of the concern. Most people away from the coast believe that they are far enough inland to be safe from hurricanes. In one sense that is true for the immediate effects of the hurricane. However, most of these inland residents fail to realize that their daily lives will be severely impacted for weeks or months. Employees will not be able to get to work due to downed trees and widespread power outages may shut down the economy for quite a long time. According to the LIPA Forecasts Hurricane Outages & Recovery, Sept. 10, 2003, a direct hit by a Category 3 hurricane could cause some 750,000 to 1,000,000 power outages island-wide. And, it could take 15 to 30 days to restore service to all customers, or at least to those customers whose homes or businesses were not destroyed.
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Saw Joe Bastardi on Fox last night talking about how the midwest weather this year points to a much greater risk for hurricanes along the eastern seaboard than down in the Gulf.
The notion of cat 3+ winds on the Verrazano is chilling.
And where are all these people supposed to go? Can you imagine a couple of million people trying to leave NYC at once? Criminy, Woodstock shut down the thruway and that was (only) half a million people.
Precisely! And if it's LI, how do you relocate them quickly? Just like New Orleans, there will be those who decide to stay behind. This is a disaster waiting to happen.
Turn off Coast to Coast, NYer, and step away from the radio ...
I assume they mean "wreak" not "reap."
At the end of July last year he rather confidently stated that activity in the Gulf would lessen and the East Coast would be hit in the latter part of the season.
We saw how that turned out. He'll make the same prediction every year till he's right, and the less-bright will hail him as a hero when he is.
Oops, sorry, I forgot the "take this with a sensationalist grain of salt" disclaimer.
Regardless, a major hurricane in NY - can't even imagine. Like a previous poster said, where would they all go? It's not like there are that many roads off LI (or ferries!). And we think FL evacs are overwhelming.
My sister lives in Montauk, at the tip of LI. She's as much said to me the same thing. After they go west on 27 for 15 minutes to the next city-the only road out of town-they will be stuck in traffic for days.
This is a disaster waiting to happen.
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Life on Earth is a disaster waiting to happen!!!
FOUR HURRICANES OCCURED AT THE SAME TIME IN 1893
1893: Hog Island Demolished by Hurricane
On August 22, 1893, four hurricanes occurred at the same time: one near Nova Scotia, Canada; one near the Lesser Antilles, which include the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Barbados, Martinique, and Guadeloupe; one near the Cape Verde Islands, off Africa’s west coast; and one between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The fourth storm hit New York City two days later, on August 24.
http://www.newsday.com/about/ny-ihiny062805story,0,762175.htmlstory?coll=ny-rightrail-bottompromo
Oh boy ... Montauk is the end of the island. Having spent most of my life on LI, my suggestion to her would be to monitor the weather over the next few months and make definitive plans. She should not wait for the weather service to issue a hurricane warning! The best bet would be to head north to 25A and into Port Jefferson where she can catch the ferry across LI Sound to CT. This will only work if the plan includes evacuating the home a day or two before the storm 'may' strike. IMHO, since the advent of 'doppler radar' the weathermen can no longer predict weather. A window and some advance notice is all it takes.
Manhattan is surrounded by bridges - Throggs Neck, Whitestone, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Triborough - cat 3+ winds on any of these bridges is nightmarish.
Back in the late 70's, a small hurricane hit NYC. Before leaving my LI home I called the building management at the office building where I worked in Manhattan and was advised that the building was closed due to the high winds. My employer later decided to dock one day's pay from those who did not "make the effort" to come to work.
Lol .... you're high enough up in your Big Apple apartment that a gargantuan flood would have little effect other than to knock out the elevator service ... a problem you've already mastered. Of course at that point, it would be you who needed to 'step away from the radio' :-)
There is no way to go north from Montauk. Port Jefferson is a good hour east from her house, if not more.
The only place east of her house is the Atlantic Ocean. To reach Port Jefferson, she must drive west and then north to 25A, then west on it to Port Jefferson. It's a plan .. not perfect ... but a starting point.
Whoops! I meant west.
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