That would be a reasonable top of the bell curve, call, but there is a fairly high Standard Deviation on this race, as is often the case in primaries. There is certainly a material possibility for an upset, although I suspect that is unlikely. It is a gut call based on my experience however, nothing "scientific." Jacob in my view has succeeded in making the sole case for his election the sending of a message on immigration. Otherwise he seems out there. But then I am not an LDS member living in Provo. So what is way out there to me, may not be to them.