Posted on 05/28/2006 6:31:56 AM PDT by RobFromGa
RINOS, and LIBERALS, and BEARS, OH MY!
by RobFromGa
If you look at each state and how it voted in the 2004 election cycle, you can assign a Red, Purple, or Blue category to it. I used anything greater than 52% Bush as Red, 48-52% Bush
was Purple, and anything under 48% as a Blue State.
Then in looking at 2005 and Lifetime ACU ratings (how conservative their voting patterns have been), I assigned the Senators in order from most conservative to least conservative, and
going off of current knowledge of recent voting patterns, I then identified the RINOs:
Liberal RINOs (least conservative first): Chafee, Snowe, Collins
Moderate RINOs (least conservative first): DeWine,Smith(OR),Specter,Coleman,Voinovich,Gregg,McCain*,Graham*,Hagel*
Note: It is very hard to call McCain, Graham and Hagel RINOs from looking at their long-term voting patterns, but for the purposes of this analysis I call them RINOs mainly because that
are bucking the GOP Senate leacership and acting like they are in charge instead of Frist. It is likely that 2008 Presidential politics are playing a big role in their behaviour.
Looking at the state breakdowns:
RED (Conservative) State Opportunities:
There are 25 Red States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:
15 Red States with 2 Conservative Senators: AL,AK,GA,ID,KS,KY,MS,MO,NC,OK,TN,TX,UT,VA,WY
2 Red States with a Conservative and a RINO: AZ, SC
4 Red States that are splitting their vote with one Conservative and one Liberal: IN,LA,MT,SD
1 Red State with a RINO and a Liberal: NE
Remarkably, there are 3 Red states with 2 Liberal Senators: AR,ND,WV
Red State Analysis:
There is a potential for +8 Conservative Senators in just those last 4 states (AR,ND,WV,and NE) and if we got two of four "split" states to throw out their liberal and elect two
Conservatives, we are at +10.
Purple (Moderate) State Opportunities:
There are 12 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:
0 Purple States with two Conservative Senators
2 Purple States with a Conservative and a RINO: PA,NH
5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM
1 Purple State with 2 RINOs: OH
2 Purple States with a Liberal and a RINO: MN,OR
2 Purple States with two Liberals: MI, WI
Purple State Analysis:
Our best chances to improve in the Purple states is to get rid of the Liberals. There are potentially 11 Liberals who could get run out of office in these states, but in order for a
Conservative to win, we need great candidates. In some cases we will probably have to settle for a Moderate in some of these Purple states. It is also likely that these states will be
trending as either more Blue or Red over time.
Blue (Liberal) State Opportunities:
There are 13 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:
1 Blue State with 2 RINOs: ME
1 Blue State with a Liberal and a RINO: RI
11 Blue States with 2 Liberal Senators: CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NY,VT,WA
Blue State Analysis: Our three most liberal RINOs are all from these blue states, and the chances of electing a true Conservative are slim to none at present. If we want more RINOs, then we could potentially
swap RINOs for liberals in some races. This will tend to be the celebrity or otherwise well-known, well-funded candidate (ala Arnold) or if there is some other local issue (like scandal).
We should not spend too much time and effort on the Blue States, when there is so much potential to improve still in the Red and Purple States.
OVERALL ANALYSIS: If we get 2 Conservatives from each Red State, and at least one Conservative from each Purple state, we are at 62 true Conservative Senators, enough to do what needs to be done to enact Conservative legislation.
TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Byrd(WV), Conrad(ND), Nelson(NE)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Stabenow(MI), Bingaman(NM), Kohl(WI), Open(MN), Nelson(FL)
UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: none
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: DeWine(OH)
HOLD SITUTATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Ensign(NV), Santorum(PA)
HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Chafee(RI), Snowe (MI)
TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)
UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)
HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)
HOLD OR ABANDON?:
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Collins(ME)
TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Lincoln(AR), Dorgan(ND), Bayh(IN)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Wyden(OR), Reid(NV), Feingold(WI), Salazar(CO)
UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: McCain*(AZ)
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Specter(PA), Voinovich*(OH), Gregg(NH)
HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Grassley(IA), Martinez(FL)
HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: none
We need strong candidates and a good grass-roots effort in each of these races where we have an opportunity for a TAKEOVER or an upgrade. Soliciting Freeper comments as to who is
respected enough in each of these states to make this happen.
What conservative candidates have experience in statewide elections in these states, and what will it take to get them to run?
It is too late to do much yet in 2006 but there are HUGE opportunities in 2008 and 2010 that we need to be planning for now...
Soliciting Freeper input.
RobFromGa
What's going to drive them away? Not allowing illegal entry?...Is illegal entry or illegal anything "socially conservative" now?
No that won't drive them away. What WILL drive them away is calling for minefields and machine guns that is becoming more and more prevalent in this debate.
On the one hand you're talking about pandering to (hopefully) legal Mexican voters on the other you're talking about pandering to illegal aliens.
Reducing yourself to catering the lowest common denominator is not the way to keep respect.
Look, you are pandered to far more than illegal aliens.
I would hope so, but lately there's not much evidence of that.
They would at least have 60. And that is all that is needed to do about ewerything we need to ensure the future prosperity of our country.
It is really all about recruitment and candidates when you get right down to the bottom of it. Maybe it is because Conservatives are not really "government" types-- they tend to distrust government and politicians. So why woudl they want to be one? And especially why would they want to become a line-long politician.
Liberals, on the other hand, look at Government as the highest aspiration. Is it any wonder that they have many willing to serve?
I think that this basic difference between conservatives and liberals is a key point. Term limits would help some to overcome this problem.
I think most Freepers think there are more than these four RINOs. Maybe RINO is a bad word, maybe undependable is better. Anyone below about an 88 is undependable. And a couple of votes the wrong way on critical legislation is enough to get someone branded for life, unless they can explain themselves.
</p>Maybe the undependables would be more dependable if we added 8 Conservatives in Red States and kicked out a bunch of liberals representing these states?
Hello scpg2. ...Nice see you.
Thanks for the ping!
Great job Rob. I'm printing this out and perusing it.
Interesting.
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