[eureka!]

generic poll analysis ping...

[tobyhill]

Very informative. I have an idea that would take the weight factor away and be a bit more fair.
Take 1500 people divide 52% that voted for Bush and the 48% that voted for Kerry and ask 3 questions with the choice of one, 1) More often than not approve of Bush, 2) about the same, 3) more often than not disapprove of Bush. Take the "about the same" and divide equally amongst the other two questions. This method would eliminate all party affiliation and take a percentage based only on an elected result.

[LS]

Average voters can and do defect to the other party, and they almost always defect to the party of their incumbent

End of story.

We could add, however, that "committed voters may stay home, but they never defect to the opposite party."

This translates to a one seat gain (min.) in the Senate and a one to five seat gain in the House.