[LS]

Average voters can and do defect to the other party, and they almost always defect to the party of their incumbent

End of story.

We could add, however, that "committed voters may stay home, but they never defect to the opposite party."

This translates to a one seat gain (min.) in the Senate and a one to five seat gain in the House.

[eureka!]

"This translates to a one seat gain (min.) in the Senate and a one to five seat gain in the House."

I love your optimism and do not share the Chicken Little mindset held by many. Indeed, Santorum was written off and has closed the gap. That Mellman is not in the news much means he is busy doing his job. GOTV is the key and there is plenty of reasons for the GOP to do so....