Posted on 04/23/2006 7:22:07 PM PDT by RWR8189
NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN the elections business, Karl Rove has a huge task on his hands: assuring strong Republican voter turnout. At the moment, Republicans are in a funk. And their dejected mood may presage a low turnout in the midterm election on November 7. Should a large number of Republican voters sit this one out, Republicans could lose control of one or both houses of Congress. It's when Republicans are either inspired or angry that they show up in large numbers and win elections. So Rove, along with Republican national chairman Ken Mehlman, has the job of shaping issues that will make Republicans angry or inspired, or both.
There's one big problem--two, actually. First, Rove's magic won't affect the biggest issues dogging the Bush presidency and causing Republicans to be disheartened: Iraq and rising gas prices. But the second problem--President Bush's sagging job approval among Republicans--is one that Rove can address by emphasizing policies that appeal to Republicans and by creating strong fears of a Democratic takeover.
Let's be clear about turnout. It matters enormously. The sweeping Republican defeat following Watergate in 1974 was only indirectly related to the scandal. The Democratic landslide was directly attributable to the diminished Republican turnout that resulted from Watergate-induced dejection among Republicans.
More recently, the turnout factor has been the single greatest influence on midterm elections. In 1990, 27.4 million Americans voted for Republican House candidates, and the party lost 8 seats. In 1994, however, the Republican turnout jumped to 36.3 million, and the party captured 52 House seats. It dipped in 1998 to 32 million, prompting a loss of 5 seats. But in 2002 it soared to 37 million, and Republicans won 8 House seats.
In presidential election years, jacking up turnout is relatively doable, as the Bush campaign showed in 2004. Presidential elections unleash "incredible energy," a senior Bush adviser says, and that generates volunteers, donors, a campaign infrastructure, and a flood of voters to the polls. "By definition there's less energy," says the adviser, in nonpresidential years--and less infrastructure for a national campaign. The "key" in these years, the adviser continues, is to make "your base as inspired as possible."
With the 2006 midterm election six months away, the Republican base is uninspired. In the Fox News poll in mid-April, only 66 percent of Republicans said they looked favorably on the Bush presidency. This is a disastrous number for Republicans. Of course, it wasn't as bad as the overall Bush rating of 33 percent, which included Democrats and independents.
Low job approval can have a double whammy effect. By itself, a 66 percent rating means that turnout by Republicans is likely to be low. In 2002 and 2004, when Republicans won House seats, Bush's approval among Republicans was 20 or more points higher.
The second effect is to cause further Republican disenchantment. Low poll numbers like 33 percent approval are bound to prompt some Republicans to feel they must separate themselves from Bush and join in criticizing him and Republicans in Congress. This, in turn, leads to lower turnout.
It's a vicious political cycle, but it's not the end of the world for Republicans. There's a lot Rove can do now that he's freed from the administrative duties that went with his old job as deputy chief of staff. He's back to his first-term job as the chief political strategist for Bush and the Republican party. And he has closer ties to the new chief of staff, Josh Bolten, than he did to Bolten's predecessor, Andy Card. He's in a position to invigorate Bush's message and rally Republicans.
A political adviser who works closely with Rove has developed a list of issues that Republicans should concentrate on to spur turnout. They aren't a big secret. Republicans can't survive by relying on incumbency, money, and attacks on Democrats. They need a positive agenda to stir the Republican base in general and conservatives in particular.
So at the top of his list is passage of a federal budget with at least minimal restraints on spending. Before the Easter recess, the House failed to pass one. Since spending curbs are important to conservatives, they'd better pass a budget soon. Republicans also need to stress the "culture of life" by noisily opposing abortion, cloning, and expanded federal subsidies for embryonic stem cell research. And they should push to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and propose serious health care legislation. If they do all this, Bush's support among Republicans should rise and so should his overall approval rating.
But what about Iraq and gas prices? Here, Bush needs help from outside events. Since early 2005, his presidency has been beset not only by Iraq and gas prices but by other outside events, including Hurricane Katrina and the Dubai ports deal. Now, a Republican official says, "it would help to have an outside situation that we could take advantage of."
A permanent, elected government in Iraq might be one, especially if it leads to fewer bombings and further reductions in American casualties by this summer. A break in gas prices is unlikely, but stranger things have happened. It would help. And Democrats may foolishly contribute by making themselves more vulnerable than ever to attacks of the type that Rove is adept at organizing.
The old football saying about winning applies to turnout in 2006. It's not everything. It's the only thing. For Bush and Republicans, turnout is destiny.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum).
Sorry...we'd like to go to the polls, Fred, but we can't afford the gas.
I'll heavily support the '06 elections to prevent a 'Rat impeachment run, but if things aren't turned around by '08, the RINOs will be hearded over the cliff.
Absolutely nothing on immigration? Ridiculous, they're screwed...
What's in it for me Karl?
Rubbish. Bush could do a LOT MORE for the party by dropping his Shamnesty proposal and enforcing exisitng immigration laws at the border and at employers
And perhaps telling the EPA to drop all the useless enviro-whacko rules on various gasoline blends, like he did temporarily after Katrina.
You are kidding, right?
If the democrats win the House they will impeach President Bush in time of war.
This will bring Republicans and Republican leaning independents by droves to the polls.
If Rove wants to jack up republican turnout tell dubya to reverse his course on illegal immigration. The republicans, independents and reagan-democRATS will support dubya and the republican party if they really do something substantive on the illegal mess..
Yeah, the Rinos will be hearded off the cliff in 08, just don`t push my country with them. WE can`t let the RATS win.
Ditto!!
well, Bush did get Roberts and Alito on the court...one more conservative and Roe is probably done. so Bush should stress the pro-life issue, he actually has delivered on it.
If the democrats win the House they will impeach President Bush in time of war.
You beat me to it.....If the Dems take the house, Conyers and Co will ensure that W is impeached.....!
Voting is important. The Constitution of 1787 was adopted with a total of 160,000 taking part, including the voting state by state.
Absolutely nothing on immigration? Ridiculous, they're screwed...
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Precisely. This is what has happened to what used to be the conservative bastion for America, the GOP. Not any more. They have lost all sense of AMERICA and focus only on votes and their empowerment, with absolutely no regard for the WILL OF THE PEOPLE. While we watch, out country is being given away to invading illegal foreigners and likewise trashed by a Washington cartel of selfish, myopic politicians who cannot see beyond the beltway.
Tip to Rove: Try marketing the GOP in English to voters. Spanish is pushing it...and tell Bush to take off that damn sombrero.
Just deemphasize the fact that they intend to turn Every town USA into Mexico City.
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