[edsheppa]

Your biology and your math are both bogus. Just for instance, supposing one mutation per 10^6 loci as you suggest, suppose a population of 10^5 individuals and a genome of 10^5 loci. That gives a total of 10^10 loci for the population. On average then there will be 10^4 mutations introduced into the population every generation.

That's quite a bit of novelty every generation for evolution to work on.

[Lucky Dog]

On average then there will be 10^4 mutations introduced into the population every generation.

Now you must take into account the number of mutations that are detrimental or benign versus beneficial and the probabilities of a change in environment natural selection pressure. Additionally, you must also account for how many generations it takes to have whatever sequential beneficial mutation appear and how many sequential mutations must exists for a new species to appear.