I'll bet a lot of foreclosures on homes owned by Blacks, Hispanics, immigrants who got suckered into unsustainable ARM mortgages. Any illegal aliens that get foreclosed is fine with me.
Its still regional, and tied to jobs. I was laid off a year and a half ago in Michigan. I've since got another job out of state but our house has been on the market for over a year, and we just got our first offer yesterday. We're taking it.
We bought it back in '98 for $260,000, 2,600 sq ft, 4 BR, 2.5 baths, basement, nice yard, great schools. Since then, when home prices have got up 5-10% a year in many markets, I will be selling my house for $2,500 more than I paid for it 8 years later. Of course, after commissions, I will be losing $13,250.
The midwest, where home price gains have been modest, could be really wacked due to the auto industry going down the tubes. In the high price markets, as long as the economy stays fairly decent, and its an area people want to live, home prices probably will stagnate, or fall a little, and simply stop turning over. People will just live in their house and not see it as an investment and plan on moving on to something else every 2-3 years. Granted, those that were foolish enough to get 100% financing with an ARM are going to be in for a rude awakinging. But that is not the majority in any market.
Let's just say that I have personal experience of this fact; two houses belonging to friends and relatives have lost considerable value in the last few months. Both for sale, one finally sold for $65K less (and it was only going for $350K originally) and the other can't sell. The owners are going to be in a horrible fix as they can't pay their mortgage now, and unfortunately they refuse to lower the price becasue their realtor friend tells them not to worry, prices will go up again.
I've seen these kind of articles many times on FR and I repeat the same thing over and over: It depends on what specific market you are in.
Here in Waukesha County Wisconsin, real estate is in good shape, and still going up.
I just sold my family home in Quincy, MA @ $90,000 less than originally listed ($650,000). It was on the market for 7 months and I only had ONE family make an offer the entire time. With inventory in the 100's in Quincy (just south of Boston) I was fortunate that the buyer's relatives live right next door...that's why they bought it. Even though I reduced the price significantly I still feel that I sold on the high end and look forward to shopping for some bargains in the near future
housing bubble popped about 2 years ago in Australia with benign effects....i know you dotn want to hear that but it is true...what peopel are conveniently ignoring is that the housing meltdown in CA and NE in the period 1990-95 was made worse by cuts in defense spending and the end of the cold war.
It was never out.