It was out of the box among poultry several months ago. There's not the slightest doubt that it will become widespread throughout the eastern hemisphere.
It's probably only a matter of time before it comes to the Americas, although the ocean is quite helpful. Chickens and turkeys, or even ducks, are unlikely to make the flight by themselves.
As long as the virus remains largely contagious only within the poultry population, it's only an economic disaster.
When it becomes contagious within the human population, then it's truly out of the box.
I thought those first German cases were migratory wild swans.
There was a nasty virus a few years back (West Nile virus?) that did a number on birds in SE Massachusetts. I wonder if this is related to "bird flu".
From what I'm reading, the real disaster is economic, if poultry cannot be processed and the economics and fear factor create a situation where people cut back on work, travel, shopping, etc., and lock themselves in their houses.
Sure would like to be corrected on my impressions. It's so hard to separate the truth, the "reassure the public" PR, the bad journalism, and the panic.