Actually, a pretty darn good chance. He's already outpolling Fast Eddie and he hasn't even been officially nominated.
Do you have a source for that poll?
The problem is the dead don't get consulted by pollsters, and they count the choices of the living only once. Unfortunately neither of those restrictions apply to the statewide vote. Philadelphia will generate as many votes as necessary to secure Rendell's re-election. Polls will have to run at least 55-45 for Swann for him to have a realistic shot at winning the election. I wish him well.
I do have to say, not one, but two polls in the last couple weeks (SV and Rassmussen) show Swann leading Rendell. In fact they show Swann doing better against Rendell than Blackwell is doing against Strickland.