Ol' Sheets is telling us two things, I think.
1. Red state Democrats up for re-election in '06 had best not tempt fate.
2. If 40+ Democrat Senators vote against Alito, it will suggest they could have mounted a filibuster, had they really, really wanted to. That would inflame the moonbat base. Thus, in the end, it would we wise to have no more than 39 votes against Alito.
I read it differently
Byrd is old and has nothing to fear. He will win this election just like the last dozen. Raese will likely score 36%. Like last time, Byrd may not even campaign.
Byrd is well known as an expert omn senate rules. If he wanted to block this with a filibuster or other mechanism, he would. Alito will get confirmed because Byrd views him as a qualified conservative justice and wants him confirmed. Just like when he met privately with Roberts and discussed his views on the Constitution. He then voted Roberts out of committee and cleared the way for his confirmation.
Think you got something here.
. Red state Democrats up for re-election in '06 had best not tempt fate.
------especially if that Dem is 106 years old.