I respectfully disagree with you. If the dissatisfied Republican decides to vote for a 3rd party INSTEAD of the vote they would have given Bush - then yes, that vote was taken away from Bush. It's got nothing to do with a "pool of votes committed to Bush". If a Bush voter decides to vote for someone else, then Bush has lost that vote. Seems logical to me.
Ok, here is the crux of our disagreement.
From your point of view there are a limited number of types of voters.
1. republicans
2. democrats
3. Independent / other
You automatically assume that a republican, even if dissatisfied with his or her choice of candidate, should vote for the republican candidate (a bush voter), and therefore if the voter casts a ballot for anyone else, that vote is considered "lost" and helps the opponent win.
This argument works equally well for the democrats.
Unfortunately, both are wrong.
I don't think we're going to agree on this.
However, how would you categorize a voter who changed their affiliation from "republican" to "independent"?
Does this change automatically "help" all democrats in all races in which that voter would vote?
Just wondering...............