Manure. It's a push poll by AP/IPSOS.
Say what you like about AP but Ipsos makes their living by polling. It can't be in their interests to do push polling. They make their money from market research, political polling is a sideline. If their methodology is off, the marketers don't pay them for their services.
I have never been polled, never and I vote, serve jury duty, how do they select whom is polled