Posted on 11/11/2005 10:55:54 AM PST by surely_you_jest
I am a condo seller in NYC. I want a gay buyer. No kids, tons of cash. Eurotrash gay is best while euro still has a 17% premium.
The rise reminded me of the stock market pyramid scheme during the Clinton administration.
I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did.
I think rates will be lower in April than they are now. I said the same on FR last year when others predicted 7.5% 30yr rates by the end of 05.
I also shorted crude @ $70.50 (look for my post on the night Katrina hit). I like to bet against conventional wisdom. Inflation is tame and the Fed will end their hikes sooner than expected. Bernake is not as consumed with wrecking the housing market as is Greespan.
I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did
It'll be a much slower decline. Probably take 18 months to 2 years.
You mean less houses get sold during the winter? Did you go to bidness school to learn that or .... well, I won't say it. You folks are priceless;
No, what you want is the privileged child of someone from the midwest in town less than two years who doesn't know what real estate is worth and will have dad/mom co-sign the loan.
A real estate company is offering to buy vacant parcels in Alaska. Sight unseen, good prices. Something is going on.
Do those parcels come with oil and mineral rights?
I know someone who bought a very nice home in 1990 and had to take about a 10% loss on it in 1999. If they could have held a few more years, they would have at least doubled the price. As it was the home was on the market for over a year.
In some markets these days it may take 20 years for some people to get their money back or 10 or 5. You never know, because there is no rule and you never know what kind of manipulation or stupidity is going to come out of Washington.
No. There are next to no subsurface right available to ordinary people in Alaska. They say it is possible to get subsurface rights, but the land authority would have to at least respond to a request, and they don't anymore unless you are a corporation.
This is the worrying factor for me. You are correct in that the number of closings drops off rapidly at this time of year, but normally there is an equal percentage of drop in the total inventory offered as 'open listings'. If inventory is up a great deal that is not a good sign for future pricing.
Nam Vet
(R.E. Broker over 15 years)
Metro Washington is a stone, not the mountain. For those of us who own our homes, and have to pay taxes, prices staying the same is good news.
Only mineralization in this region is gravel. Some placer gold, but that has already been scouted out. There is zinc and uranium north of town, but that is pretty well known also. There is probably considerable natural gas in the flats west of town, but none of that land is in private hands so the real estate speculator couldn't offer on it anyway. But, the Natural Gas Pipeline could be coming soon, and who knows, my vacant parcel could be right on the proposed route. $$$$$$$ :)
I'm not smart enough to put all the information together, but I do know that a lot of people are up to their neck in debt from equity loans and credit cards. Add to that increased expenses by way of energy and stagnant wages coupled with uncertain job market.
Before any crash there is the smell of fear. I don't think I've gotten a whiff of it yet, but I don't doubt that it's coming.
True enough. But the average American only holds a given house for about five years or so, last time I saw a statistic on this point.
A valid concern. There are states, however, which ameliorate that impact. Florida has the Save Our Homes constitutional amendment. In essence, the tax valuation of homestead property starts from a baseline at purchase, and then may only increase in taxable valuation at the lesser of inflation, as measured by the CPI, or by 3 %, per year, whichever is less. In Texas, apparently, your tax (or perhaps it is taxable value) on your home becomes fixed when the owner becomes 60 years of age (this, according to my in-laws). Some other states do similar things.
I wonder if the housing market will go down like the tech sector did.
Technical analysis of markets is somewhat like religion - either you believe, or you don't. Having said that, markets that when plotted describe a parabolic curve on the upside, tend to be parabolic (if not more extreme in terms of trend) on the downside.
Real estate, particularly residential real estate, has historically been less volatile than financial markets.
The question, of course, is whether or not the amount of speculation in the residential real estate market might not cause it to behave more like a financial market than the historical norms for the residential real estate markets.
If any of us could predict this with decent levels of reliability, we would be extraordinarily wealthy.
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