Maybe, but the votes in Chesterfield and Henrico tell the story. Those counties are not in the anti Bush belt.
"Maybe, but the votes in Chesterfield and Henrico tell the story. Those counties are not in the anti Bush belt."
Let's reflect on that for a moment. I was looking over the votes of Kaine's bailiwick and looked at the breakdown of votes for the past 3 elections ('01 Gov/'04 Pres/'05 Gov) as follows (I also included Richmond City, as you know, a separate political entity from the 2 counties that surround it):
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY
'04 Pres
49,346 36.88% D-Kerry 83,745 62.58% R-Bush
'01 Gov
33,810 41.95% D-Warner 46,160 57.27% R-Earley
'05 Gov
40,124 45.09% D-Kaine 48,102 54.05% R-Kilgore
It's clear in Chesterfield, the most Republican of the 3, that Republican turnout was jaw-droppingly low. Shockingly, in '01, Kilgore won Chesterfield by a 70-29% margin and won 10,000 more votes than Earley and 19,000 more than Kaine. There was no excuse for Kilgore to receive less than 60% of the vote here (and as a result, it appears we lost a safe House seat by only about 50 votes).
Next up was Henrico:
HENRICO COUNTY
'04 Pres
60,864 45.62% D 71,809 53.82% R
'01 Gov
42,089 51.39% D 39,215 47.88% R
'05 Gov
48,289 53.45% D 40,608 44.95% R
This is more Dem than Chesterfield, but even at that, Kilgore still carried this county by a 62-38% margin in '01, winning 50,000 votes. However, there was heavy ticket-splitting as Kaine beat Jay Katzen by a 56-43% margin, receiving 46,000 votes (so this where a hometown factor was more at play). The best Kilgore could've hoped for was an even-split, but bled off very badly here.
I'm throwing in Richmond City just for contrast, despite clearly being a heavily Dem area...
RICHMOND CITY
'04 Pres
52,167 70.19% D 21,637 29.11% R
'01 Gov
35,558 73.26% D 12,432 25.61% R
'05 Gov
38,357 75.89% D 11,383 22.52% R
Even in '01, Kilgore managed to get an unusually high (for a Republican) 36% of the vote and 17,000 votes, and should've still received at or around 30% again. I always tend to find it unusual, if not outright suspicious, when there is a sharp spike upwards in voting numbers in districts where there is population decline (and there are around 5,000 fewer residents since '01, if not more), so were it not for hometown support, that substantial increase for Kaine would be very suspicious.
In any event, it does clearly show that Kaine overall outperformed his initial showing in '01 and Kilgore dramatically underperformed (especially considering his huge '01 win, the highest vote-getter in the state). By all accounts, and the numbers, Kilgore could've declared himself the Governor-elect 4 years ago. I really don't think there is anyone else to blame here other than Kilgore and a very lousy campaign. I'd neither blame Dubya (whose approval ratings aren't nearly as low in VA, or elsewhere, as the media claims) or Sen. George Allen.
But, still, in Kaine winning the Governorship, the Dems now have the problem that without carrying over Creigh Deeds or Leslie Byrne to the two top jobs, they have no heir apparent, and it remains almost a given that (unless a similar fratricidal situation occurs as did in '01) either McDonnell or Bolling will be the next Governor (and at this point, there probably should've been a gentleman's agreement that whomever received more votes in this round, that being Lt Gov-elect Bill Bolling, that they should have a clear shot at the Governorship and the other gentleman should either stay put for another term or run for Lt Gov). The only possible wild-card entry would be if Mark Warner opted for a comeback to the job in '09 (assuming he isn't seriously damaged by a Presidential run). If Leslie Byrne decides to make a run for it, we can already put it back in our column.