Dewine has a lot of his base angry. DeWine might win reelection in a state that is trending left. But if he has opposition in the primary he could lose the nomination. The base is ticked.
Lots of Republicans in Ohio are angry. Look at the Taft Job approval numbers.
When the base is angry they don't go to the polls. Lots of Republicans will not vote for a Democrat. When unhappy they just don't vote.. period. That can be enough hand sitting to take the state from a Republican state Government to a Democratic State government.
Republican turn out in Ohio in 2006 will be lighter than usual. And the state was very close in 2004. DeWine is in a fight for his political life and anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish.
Taft was the best political name in Ohio. It isn't anymore. DeWine was a not as good a name as Taft. But it was a good name. Today it is a damaged name. Not as damaged as Taft but damaged never the less.
Taft will lose re-election because he is very nearly despised by his base. I just hope he steps down for a better conservative.
But I just don't see DeWine losing. No real good argument for why he should stay or go, only that I just don't see it happening. He may not be hugely popular, but he is too well known as a Senator. I grew up with a lot of democrats. Some friends of mine from highschool, jobs I held before the Army, etc... are Democrats who would vote for DeWine just because they know the name, just because they see it every year. Sam Purses (D), former mayor of Canton stayed mayor because his name was known, not because Canton has ever leaned far left. Former mayor Richard Watkins (R) won because Purses made some salty city expansion deals. Current mayor Janet Creighton won because she got the backing of the wildly poular Watkins when he retired, not because Canton leaned far to the right. That is probably the best defense I have for my belief that DeWine will stay.