Conventional diplomacy, of which the U.N. is a fruit, is concerned mainly, if not solely, with the behavior of regimes, not their nature. It assumes that regimes can change their principal features, manifested in their domestic and foreign policies, without changing their nature.
That is a dangerous illusion. Regimes, like individuals, cannot act against their character for any appreciable length of time. A serial killer may act as a responsible and law-abiding citizen for a while. But he is sure to kill again.
In 1991, Saddam Hussein signed a ceasefire with the U.N. forces, led by the United States. But he had no intention of honoring his signature; indeed, could not have done so, because the nature of his regime would not allow it.
A scorpion does not sting because it wishes to misbehave; it is programmed to do so. Like all living organisms, a political system has its DNA.
The Mehlis mission is a side-show that could help fudge the real issue — which is the urgent need for changes in the nature of the Syrian regime.
...Yet the truth is that Syria is ripe for change, and desperately needs it. This need not come via military action, though that shouldn't be ruled out. A substantial segment of the Syrian regime, probably including Assad himself, is conscious that change is not only possible but inevitable.
Any attempt by the United Nations to impose sanctions on Syria because of the Hariri case could, paradoxically, freeze the energies unleashed for change and strengthen the most reactionary segments of the regime — who, echoing the Iranian mullahs, believe they can weather the current storm and wait Bush out...
Oh, my no. The worst case is that the UNSC's members decide once again to subordinate the issue to their own agendas and end up doing nothing whatever, stymied by Russian or Chinese or French intransigence. It is also the case that seems to be playing itself out.
The real difficulty is that Syria has wedged itself into the plans and programs of all of these countries and more, Iran and Turkey being obvious examples, in terms of intelligence and power employment within the Middle East. These are interests that will be threatened by the instability inherent in the forcible removal of the Assad regime by whatever means. And it is far easier to stymie Democracy than to promote it.