My impression is that GWB likes his hunches. He thinks he has great insight into the fundamental character of people.
However as he's only human, he's sometimes wrong. And boy when he's wrong, he gets it really wrong.
Exhibit 1: Vladmir Putin.
Putin has not proven as "wrong" as Schroeder, Chirac, and Chretien.
If he is wrong about Roberts or Miers, his legacy is severely tarnished if not shattered. Yet it is his Constitutional choice to make as the elected President.
Actually, exhibit A was his believing certain of his advisors that the war in Iraq would be a cakewalk and that Iraqis would come cheering to greet the troops, ending a quick war with a long love-fest.