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Hurricane Local Statement

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...AND LOCAL IMPACT SECTIONS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN
WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE
DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS
THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING
SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE
INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN
THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT
THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH
FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41
INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF
NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY.

IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED.
SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY.

IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A
DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE ON SUNDAY.

IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY
ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER.

IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN
SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL
NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL
OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY.

IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND
PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO.

IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS
ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON
WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM
TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH
FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE
COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI
TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING MORNING WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE
HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE
UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN
EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...FACTORING IN
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE
STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET
OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE
HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY
MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM
BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL
COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON
SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO
PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A
PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PS






414 posted on 10/22/2005 11:09:09 PM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 413 | View Replies ]


To: laz

Floater looks like the dry air is affecting it. Would be par for the course this year if it dwindled down to Charley size and intensified.


435 posted on 10/23/2005 12:17:01 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Sanford, FL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 414 | View Replies ]

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