[Little Ray]

I think you're a little optimistic. The USN war-gamed a war with the PRC and, according to the results, its carriers were forced to retreat. Their carrier makes this equation worse.

Mind you, the USN might have been trying to improve its budget situation...

[JamesP81]

I think you're a little optimistic. The USN war-gamed a war with the PRC and, according to the results, its carriers were forced to retreat. Their carrier makes this equation worse.

When they did the war game, was it solely our naval forces v. their forces? If so, then it's not surprising. 4 carriers can field between 350-400 aircraft. That, against their thousands of planes in their air force. I think the important thing to remember is that not just USN is going to be involved in such a conflict. Significant USAF and USMC assets would be deployed against the threat as well.

With all that being said, a strategic withdrawal out of the Formosa straight would probably be smart on our part. It would expose our carriers to less risk from land based air power and it would force their fleet into open waters, if they wished to engage us, which would be suicidal. It would also leave us within striking distance of their fleets inside of the Formosa strait (the advantage to carriers, after all, is their very long range).