Posted on 09/18/2005 10:45:50 AM PDT by Altair333
I've been reading German news websites about the election, and the election results are seen as a defeat for the conservative CDU/CSU union. In this link above, the pictures of the folks grimacing are German "union" conservatives, while those celebrating are the SPD supporters of Schroeder.
In fact, the article states that:
Damit ist in der Tat noch völlig unklar, ob Deutschland eine Kanzlerin Merkel bekommt oder einen Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) behalten wird.
which translated means "in fact, its fully unclear whether Germany will have a Chancellor Merkel or whether it will keep Chancellor Schroeder."
This uncertainty is due to the fact that, if Schroeder is after power at all costs, he can say to heck with principles and try to form a coalition with the Greens and the FDP. This would be an odd coalation because the FDP is the most conservative party in Germany, but stranger things have happened I suppose. At any rate, it is clear that this election is NOT a victory for German conservatism. For that, a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the FDP was needed and that will not happen.
"German news websites about the election, and the election results are seen as a defeat for the conservative"
They would say that if Merkel received 100% of the vote. The coalitions may not end the way Merkel wanted it, but one thing is certain...Schroeder is out.
Actually it's not certain but it's very likely.
And it is in fact a defeat for the CDU/CSU union, compared to what was expected. I mean, what would you call it if the union was consistently above 40% in the polls for months and then election day comes around and they are around 35.5%?
The likely result will be Merkel as the ineffectual figurehead of a "grand coalition" betwen the conservative union and Schroeder's SPD party. Parties and coalitions are what matters in German politics- not the Chancellor as an individual. In every move she makes, Merkel will have to represent the interests of Schroeder's SPD as well as her own conservatives. That means she'll have to toe the anti-American foreign policy far more than she would otherwise.
I agree this result is better than an outright Schroeder win, but one could have expected much better based on the polls and the 11% unemployment in Germany.
Everybody here is very surprised that the CDU did so badly and that the SPD did so well.
The consensus seems to be that Kirchhof and his proposals for a flat tax crippled Merkel's campaign (as I said it would). The two parties are only about 1.5% apart.
I would think that a Grand Coalition between CDU and SPD is the only real option. Of the other three parties, the Greens are preparing to go into opposition and the Left party has been ruled out as a partner by both the SPD and the CDU (obviously).
Schröder seems to think he can continue as Chancellor, but that's only possible in a traffic-light coalition (Greens, Liberals and SPD). But FDP man Westerwelle has already said he wouldn't ally with the SPD (or will he? His party made massive gains, and then they go into the opposition?). That would be a massive act of betrayal of the CDU by the FDP, of course.
This would mean the CDU, and the SPD as its junior partner. Both of them are interested in reforming the system, so they will doubtless arrive at some kind of compromise.
All very interesting. However, since the CDU is slightly ahead, Merkel has the first shot at forming a government.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
"In Germany, the sclerotized welfare state will shuffle along, taking the country down with it like a deadweight."
True. I guess the bright side for the US is that Germany, as an economic competitor, will be continue to be hampering its own competitiveness.
I think that it really about unemployment.
1. The unemployment is uneven, that is, some areas have large unemployment (north in Bremerhaven = 25%, I was told, as of this past June)) or in parts of former east Germany (up to 20%) so the 11% figure is somewhat uninformative, since other areas must have close 2% to make up the difference.
2. Also, the unemployment benefits must be rethought. Those who can work, don't often get off the dole. Spouses used to get full wages when they would become unemployed. I assume this is changing as we speak.
I think that all Germans know that it will take time, patience and many, many Euros to make up for the reunification process, the rebuilding of former east Germany (effects of 50 years of communism, that is. There are STILL many, many empty gulag-type buildings and hodge-podge urban planning. Example: Leipzig seems to be 80% digging, building, tearing down and unplanned. Dresden is gorgeous. What a difference in the two cities.) and the re-structuring of "benefits."
They just can afford to do what they did before reunification.
I could actually see a coalition between Schroeder and the Greens - it has, after all, been tried before - but what would he have to offer the FDP to participate? An economic post? Could he set them up with the latter to take the heat for the reforms he'll no doubt have to try again?
Merkel will not have a majority.
While the CDU wins with less than a one percent margin, it is ONLY because they lost less votes than the SPD which also lost votes. But who gained? The FDP, an economically conservative yet socially liberal party (By German standards) and the die hard communists of the past (PDS). So, today we will have a Germany with 52 communists sitting in the legislature since they got 8.6% of the votes. Of course, the Greens are no longer even considered as far left weirdoes by the Germans, so it's not such a big deal when this party with connections to the "autonome szene" and leaders like Fischer and Ditfuerth gets another 8.2%.
Is winning with 34% (CDU) and not being able to gain a majority in coalition with the FDP (10.2%) really a victory for common sense? Misled for seven years the German economy is near broke. The Germans have managed to drift away from strong US/German relations, even create a “class” system within the EU, they managed to question the existence of NATO and surely didn’t help some Iraqi who was oppressed by Saddam by favoring inaction in his removal. The German economy alone is in an abdominal condition. Unemployment at record levels, practically no growth, social structures that are failing, rise in crime, incomes that have in effect shrunk, yet the German votes for the same party which has led this nation down this same path for seven years.
In fact, while there is some conservative backlash because of the failures and deficiencies of the SPD/Green government, many in Germany reacted quite the opposite of what one would expect. Masses ran to the socialists in this election. The ONLY explanation for this is that the "average" person doing this must have thought that, "We just didn't go far enough with our socialist experiment".
What does this tell about the Germans?
Red6
Who the hell cares, Europe is over. Its been over since 1914 when they squandered control of virtually the whole world for an interfamily conflct that wasted their fortunes and their youth. The people who gave us the renaissance, enlightenment and age of reason are GONE, replacfed with the bankrupt robots of ism, socialism, commumism, fascism, secularism. EUROPE IS/HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN DEAD.
"We just didn't go far enough with our socialist experiment"
Last week while in Germany, this is exactly what I learned.
Many Germans are disappointed in Schroeder, but for the reason that he did not follow Socialism too well.
Strange people!
In what way is this the case?
Is the FDP really a "classical liberal" party, i.e. promoting free markets and free trade? I have often seen European parties described as "conservative" when they might actually promote what for Americans would be quasi-libertarian policies.
If I am not mistaken, I believe they are more akin to Libertarians, but also represent attorneys and doctors. The CSU I think is the most "Conservative" party.
That is not certain at all. If no government can be formed, German law calls for new elections to be called, which has never happened in German postwar history. One must assume this would only help Schroeder, and he would likely prevail. Things are looking very bad indeed for Merkel & Co. She has only herself to blame, however, after a lackluster, gaffe-filled campaign which never effectively refuted Schroeder's lies.
"She has only herself to blame, however, after a lackluster, gaffe-filled campaign which never effectively refuted Schroeder's lies."
If there is a new election, maybe she could address those issues. Rove should plan a European vacation.
If?!
And principles? What principles?!
If there is a new election I hope CDU can address those issues by replacing Merkel with more inspiring leader. Her performance was really lackluster. Plus many analysts in Germany claim CDU poor performace was a result of a fact that Germans didn't want a woman as a chancellor.
Seems that Germans are antifeminists?!
It's not that Merkel is a woman (and a rather frumpy one at that); her performance WAS poor, and wheeling out that flat-tax professor was what sunk her campaign. Everybody spotted this as a tax increase (on top of a VAT hike) on low to middle earners which would only benefit the very rich. Very foolish. The FDP picked up votes at the expense of the CDU because they rejected any flat-tax straight away.
The knives will out for her now in her own party. Stoiber and Koch among others both think they could do better. How she comports herself now in coalition negotiations will decide on whether she will be the candidate in the next election (fairly soon if a government can't be formed).
Luckily for her, the Left party cost the SPD votes (mainly in the east), otherwise it would have been a landslide victory for Schröder - the irony of it!
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