Posted on 09/06/2005 11:21:08 PM PDT by nwctwx
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 07, 2005
...Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthens as it moves slowly northward off the Florida East Coast...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to Titusville including Merritt Island...and for Grand Bahama...the Abacos and Bimini. The warning for the Bahamas will likely be discontinued later this morning.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida....and the southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of this system.
(Excerpt) Read more at wunderground.com ...
Ping.
Great. Now a badly named tropical storm.
I was hunting for this thread as the rain started up again - hard - in Orlando.
Promises to be a cruddy next few days.
And the tracks are shifting east it seems.
Now there's 2 models taking it into the gulf. Hello Nagin and Blanko.
~~~Ophelia, you're breaking my heart...~~
That's one of the poorer model maps on the net; incomprehensibly shows the BAMM and not the BAMD, and leaves off most of the important models.
The GFDL's accuracy increases as storms get stronger; it's really poor with TDs and poorly-organized tropical storms.
Actually the greatest concentration of models now shows Ophelia making a clockwise loop off North Florida/Georgia, with the storm still offshore in 6 days, with the GFS eventually hitting N Florida after that, and the others in the group implying a N Florida or Georgia hit in the 6-8 day range as well.
The tracks aren't really much east, more or less still a bunch of confusion. Steering isn't so strong in that area, the storm could decide to hang out off the coast (or move over land) for days and days.
Still a split in regards to the gulf of mexico. Climatology supports that kind of move, but others have argued against it quite well.
Thanks for the ping.. darn, darn, darn! Sure don't like that GFDL.
Well it had better stay away from the upper Texas coast because there is no room at the inn for Texans.
I should have said "thanks Howlin for the ping".
0z ECMWF brings it into the GOM, towards SE LA. That's like 6 runs in a row now.. NHC had something to say about the EC today, but it has a pretty decent track record as far as I'm concerned.
Yeah, but that bunch of confusion is sitting in a more easterly direction than the last bunch of confusion.
Doesn't matter to me. Doesn't appear to be anything but a rainmaker so far for us in FL.
Gordon did the loop thing around '95. Crossed FL went up to the Carolina's did a few somersalts then came back down and crossed FL again as a tropical wave, if I remember right.
....you're shaking my confidence daily...
(what happened to Lee, Maria and Nate?)
Humming along...
Possibly. The conclusion of the models this evening seems to be that the storm has less chance of going out to sea when compared to previous. I still wonder how some put her as far north as they do. The westerly jog at the end of NHC track makes sense, I'm not convinced the position relative to the coastline does.
Well, we're not going to beg on our knees for her to come home.
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