I've been following the radar for the last few hours, to try to account for the wobbles. Overall, I have seen very little deviation from the due north path it's currently following, and that path would pretty much split the difference between your straightline and modeled approximations. But I'm just a dumb engineer and I don't do storm tracking for a living. :)
What does your trend analysis tell you?
Fox-"Direct hit by sunrise"..
Give me a few and I'll just post a screenshot. Call it ten minutes.
If I don't hang the box.
This map covers the position plots since 1255 (CDT) today. The red dots and line represent Vortex plots, the green dots are Forecast Discussion plots, and the blue lines and dots represent the +12 hour and +24 hour positions indicated in the respective Forecast Discussions from 1600 and 2200.
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Katrina/10pmplots.jpg
