...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina beginning to turn northward toward southeastern Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast... ...Sustained hurricane-force winds occurring along the southeastern Louisiana coast...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 am CDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 28.2 north...longitude 89.6 west or about 70 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 130 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
Katrina is now moving toward the north near 12 mph. This motion is forecast to continue today with a gradual increase in forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight and on Tuesday. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will be very near the northern Gulf Coast later this morning. However... conditions are gradually deteriorating along portions of the central and northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to worsen throughout the day.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts. Katrina is now a strong category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall...but Katrina is expected to make landfall as either a category four or possibly a category five hurricane. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.
Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. During the past hour...a wind gust to 83 mph was reported from a University of southern Mississippi buoy located just east of the Chandeleur Islands...a gust to 75 mph was reported at Grand Isle Louisiana...and a wind gust to 60 mph was reported in New Orleans.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 910 mb...26.87 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi River recently reported waves heights of at least 40 feet.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible along the path of Katrina across the Gulf Coast and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday.
The tornado threat ahead of Katrina is increasing and scattered tornadoes will be possible today over southeastern Louisiana... southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and over the Florida Panhandle tonight.
Repeating the 2 am CDT position...28.2 N... 89.6 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 910 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Top of the range Category 4.
New advisory - 155 mph.
910 mb
Cautious optimism with the claim it's down to 155 mph winds?
Are they calling her fat???
No wonder she's mad.
"Repeating the 2 am CDT position...28.2 N... 89.6 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 910 mb."
I posted a new situation map. The red and green dots are position plots, and the blue line is the Forecast Discussion projected track, red lines are the outer boundaries of the eyewall. Maximum surge will probably be along a band about three quarters as wide as the eyewall, measured from the right side.
Storm center at 0200 is 77 miles from the shore as measured along the forecast track. Landfall looks to be Washington Lake (south of Port Sulphur) at 0830, presuming the current forward velocity of 12 mph continues.
I'm not predicting how this is going to happen. The landmasses may prevent significant surge from entering Lake P, and then again they may not. Just going to have to wait and see.
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Katrina/2amplots.jpg
Thank you for the continued updates. You're working hard tonight.
