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Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 16, 2005

Emily has undergone another round of strengthening this morning. An
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that the
central pressure has fallen to 943 mb...with 700 mb flight-level
winds as high as 148 kt. This would normally support surface winds
of 130-135 kt. However...the central pressure and eyewall
dropsondes do not yet support winds this high. Thus...the initial
intensity is set to 125 kt...which is in agreement with satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion is 290/16...just a little to the right of the
previous advisory. Other than that...there is no change in the
forecast philosophy. Emily is on the south and southwest side of a
deep layer ridge extending from the Atlantic across Florida into
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Large-scale models agree this ridge
should build slowly westward...with perhaps a weakness remaining
over eastern Texas as a shortwave trough moves through the north
central U.S. Emily should continue west-northwestward for at least
48 hr...which should take the center near or over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. After that...the exact track depends on how
much weakness there is in the ridge over Texas. The model track
guidance has made a large shift to the left...or south...since the
previous runs...with the major dynamical models calling for the
ridge to fill in and landfall in east central Mexico. The official
track will also shift a little to the left...but not as far as the
guidance. Overall...the forecast track is in the northern edge of
the guidance envelope.

Emily has become well organized...with a well-defined 13 N mi wide
eye and a strong outer band in the northeastern quadrant. The
major factor controlling the intensity before landfall in Yucatan
will be hard to predict eyewall cycles...with perhaps some
influence from dry air trying to entrain into the Hurricane. Emily
should weaken over Yucatan...but is expected to regain major
hurricane intensity over the warm waters of the western Gulf of
Mexico.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z 16.2n 77.3w 125 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 17.1n 79.7w 130 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 18.5n 83.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 19.9n 86.2w 130 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 21.3n 89.4w 100 kt...inland
72hr VT 19/1200z 23.5n 94.5w 105 kt...over water
96hr VT 20/1200z 25.0n 99.0w 75 kt...inland
120hr VT 21/1200z 26.0n 103.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating