[nwctwx]

Here is a discussion on the 18z GFS, FWIW:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=41168

[jpsb]

As i mentioned I am seeing a big change in the weather here in houston, looks like a low is forming/moved in. maybe models are picking this up?

[Dog Gone]

That discussion mostly discounts it, which is fine with me. I don't see any reason why Emily couldn't be a Cat 5 storm in the western Gulf unless she gets beat up over the Yucatan and heads into Mexico shortly thereafter.

If nothing else changes and she shoots the Yucatan gap, we'd better hope it hits Kenedy County.