Look, if you really think Fitch drove 30,000 people to the polls, you're free to believe that, but it's pure conjecture worse than anything Barone did and IMO poppycock. Stick a name, any name, on the ballot and some people will vote for them. And even with your "55% math" Kilgore loses a big chunk of Bush voters to Fitch BUT STILL GETS 55% OF THE OVERALL! Where do you think "Fitch voters" will go in November?
This does not ensure that the Republicans will sweep Virginia in the November 2005 Virginia election, but it is a good sign for them–and was a pleasant surprise to some knowledgeable Republican insiders. More important, the Virginia results and perhaps the New Jersey results suggest that the balance of enthusiasm, which worked for Republicans in 2004, may still be working in their favor
Barone bring up two more points in his conclusion: one, that GOP insiders were pleasantly surprised by the primary turnout -- yes, there IS such a thing as 'better than expected' -- and that aside from any quibbling over contested races etc the raw totals still point to an enthusiasm advantage for the GOP -- a contest may be the reason turnout is up, but the interest it generates is a positive in itself.
In VA there is no Presidential election, and no US Senate election. The top of the ticket is the Governor race. If the top of the ticket is unopposed there is often no reason for most people to vote in the primaries. 30,000 people came out to the polls to vote for Fitch
...it is possible some people came to the primary to vote on a US Congress race and couldn't even care about the Gov race...
but it is my observation that those voters vote for the front runner 95% of the time. Most Fitch voters did not vote for Fitch because he was on the ballot.
Stick a name, any name, on the ballot and some people will vote for them.
That is simply not true. Primaries are for the true believer. In a race where there is no President and no US Senator race it is even more clear that people who voted for Fitch voted FOR Fitch and nothing else.
Where do you think "Fitch voters" will go in November?
They will not vote in the general election or they will vote 3rd party just as Buchanan voters voted 3rd party or skiped the vote in 1996.