Replies

You missed a point:

2. Anything else is still up in the air and may or may not be filibustered as was the case before the compromise, with the guarantee from the Republican moderates that, if the Dems do decide to filibuster, the moderates will prevent the Republicans from using the nuclear option.

That's a HUGE concession...

Look down the road.

Everyone realizes that Owen and esp. Brown were on the short list to be Bush's next nominee(s) for the SCOTUS, but you can't get a home run unless you at least get to first. This compromise basically gives Owen and Brown a free pass to first base. Once they've been given consent to serve by the Senate, it will be a very difficult thing to revoke that consent if they are nominated to the SCOTUS. This compromise gives the moderates GOP and DEM alike a very large fig leaf when one or both of these ladies is a SCOTUS candidate. How can a person pass muster for the Court of Appeals, then be deemed "extraordinary cases" for recommendation to the SCOTUS? Moderates have found their safety net here.

The big picture is that this compromise virtually guarantees that the next one or possibly two SCOTUS nominees are going to be dyed in the wool conservatives. They would most likely replace Rehnquist, a fairly reliable conservative already and O'Connor, definitely a moderate. So the balance of the SCOTUS for many years, if not decades to come will be tipped toward conservatives.

Sometimes you have to cede at little ground in a battle in order to position yourself for victory in the future. I think that has been accomplished.

You are right on point, Charles H.
The Democrats lost on three, and won on four plus the principle of allowing filibusters on judicial appointments.
If appeals court nominees can be talked to death, then the same applies to SCOTUS nominees. Any of these appellate nominees can, and I expect, will, be filibustered if they would be nominated for SCOTUS.
This failure of spirit on the part of the Republicans may be the beginning of a massive conservative retreat. Bush clearly does not have the stroke to keep the tax cuts, which is another way of saying that tax increases are now assured. Any immigration reforms are flash frozen. And poor Bush, after the probable loss of the House and Senate to the Democrats in
2006, will be fighting to avoid impeachment for the next two years. The main hope, not unprecedented, is that the Democrats will field a slate of very, very bad candidates.