Posted on 05/13/2005 3:13:18 PM PDT by anotherview
"The State of Israel's establishment is the most terrible event in history…one nuclear bomb is enough to destroy it." (Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani, 2001.)
"The cancerous growth called Israel must be uprooted from the area," (Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a recent speech.)
For 18 years now, Iran has been surreptitiously striving to acquire nuclear weapons.
Initially, experts thought Iran's objective was to counterbalance the Iraqi nuclear threat. However, now that Saddam's Iraq has been obliterated, there can be no doubt the Iranians aspire to wrest away Israel's Mid-Eastern nuclear hegemony.
If Teheran succeeds, our region will change immensely.
Israel does not need nuclear power to prevent its destruction, but several times in the past our neighbors were tempted by the thought that their large armies would be able to defeat us.
The Israeli nuclear deterrence allowed the Arabs to reconcile themselves to the futility inherent in those attempts and convinced former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat to strike a peace deal with us.
The situation will change, however, once Iran possesses a nuclear bomb. Under the nuclear umbrella, terror agents and even regular armies would be able to attack Israel with no "Doomsday" fears hanging over them.
The entire neighborhood, which includes Iraq, Gulf countries, Turkey, and central Asian republics, would respond in a manner that is hard to predict.
Our fears of the Iranian regional superpower stem not only from its intentions, but also from its deeds.
The Hizbullah is Teheran's fist in the Middle East. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad take orders from Iran and are funded by Iranian money.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon did not need to explain all this to his American hosts, but he did encounter differences of opinion regarding Iran's distance from a bomb and the manner it should be address, should the worst-case scenario prevail.
As opposed to our assessment, American intelligence experts believe Iran will not be acquiring an atomic bomb before the next decade rolls around. The views expressed by International Atomic Energy Agency Head Mohammed ElBaradei lie somewhere in the middle.
Two months ago, he said his organization has no proof that Iran is scheming to produce nuclear weapons, but he also noted Teheran has the necessary know-how, and could acquire nuclear arms in two or three years.
Moreover, Iran also has missiles that could reach Israel. Ukraine's new leader Victor Yushchenko recently testified that former officials in his country sold missile components to the Iranians.
According to testimony by top American military intelligence officials, Iran may possess ocean-crossing ballistic missiles in 10 years.
Some experts argue the ideological tension in Iran has greatly loosened, the younger generation is rejecting theocracy, and the religious clerics' rule is doomed to end soon.
The problem is those predictions have been heard for several years, yet every sign of liberal reform is pushed back by Iranian leaders.
What will we do if the bomb comes before democratization? How will we act if Britain, Germany, and France reach the conclusion there is no choice but to include this crazy country in the nuclear club?
And what will we do if the United States caves in, because it is unable to open yet another front?
Ariel Sharon did not bring answers back with him, and I doubt he has any.
(04.14.05, 15:05)
P.S.: No, I don't post on Shabbat. I'm in California on business. Shabbat shalom to all.
Pinging the pingers
WARNING: This is a high volume ping list
Iran will NOT get nukes.
Israel made it clear enough.
Nuclear ayatollahs?
Naw, isn't a good name for a band.
"Atomic Ayatollahs" and "Nuclear Nabobs" would be good choices, though...
I live in California. How come none of you guys call and visit?
Iran has nukes.
Our dilemma- how to remove them due to their placements.
How to avoid escalation and Russian involvment....
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