Hey there, Cboldt.
I say there will be 55 votes to end the filibuster. I say Warner and at least a couple of the 'mod-squad' (Chaffee, Collins, Snowe) will vote to end. We can expect a couple dems to vote to end as well. What say you?
Tough call. It's close. McCain, Snow and Chaffee have made the strongest statements against a return to a simple majority being adequate to move a judicial nominee to the vote. Collins, Specter, Hagel, and few others have made noises that they aren't keen on the idea, but that doesn't mean they won't vote to end the present practice.
The showdown will play in the arena of parliamentary procedure, couched in Senate rules and precedent.
I'm not sure how many DEMs will cross over. If it was more than a few, I think Reid would have negotiated a settlement. My guess is the DEMs will pull the trigger by objecting to taking a vote, Frist will call for a ruling from the chair, a bunch of confusing parliamentary stuff will go down, and we'll have a vote on at least that one nominee. I can imagine a series of similar showdowns. We won't know, until it happens, the phrasing of the "nuclear question" or the ruling from the chair. If the question is of Constitutional import, the chair sends the question back to the Senators (i.e., the chair "doesn't rule" on the question).
At any rate, I expect it to be closer than 55-45. I will not be surprized at 51-50.
I'm not sure why all the fear and buildup. Even if the vote fails, we're at status quo. Nothing to lose!