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Russia Fumbles, and Former Sphere of Influence Deflates
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Moscow has all but lost a hold on ex-Soviet states by underestimating the populace, analysts say.
By Kim Murphy
Times Staff Writer
March 26, 2005
MOSCOW — The revolt in Kyrgyzstan that toppled Russia's strongest ally in Central Asia was the result of the latest in what analysts say is an astonishing and painful series of diplomatic missteps by Moscow.
Three largely nonviolent revolutions over the last 16 months have all but eliminated Moscow's attempt to dominate the former Soviet states that were once part of its unquestioned empire.
The sudden collapse of Kyrgyz President Askar A. Akayev's regime, after the overthrow of governments in Georgia and Ukraine, highlights the fundamental frailty of corrupt, unpopular post-Soviet regimes across the region — most seriously, potentially, in Russia itself.
As a result, the once-formidable power wielded by the Kremlin in the three former Soviet capitals has given way to an increasingly influential diplomatic role for the United States and Europe — in part, analysts say, because of Russia's failure to successfully manage foreign policy in a region it has declared vital to its own strategic interests.
"The entire world has now seen that Russia is powerless and incapable of doing anything. And next time, no one will even think about resorting to Russia's mediation services and patronage," said Stanislav Belkovsky, a political analyst with close ties to the Kremlin. "Everyone understands that the big lion is dead, and should not be feared."
Georgia's state minister for Euro-Atlantic integration, Giorgi Baramidze, said Russia was locked in the imperial policies of the 19th century czarist era, and had been unable to adapt to the economic, democratic and pragmatic alliances that now characterize state-to-state relations.
"Over all these years, Russia has failed to realize that all the empires collapsed in the last century, while Russia stubbornly continues to pretend that its empire is still alive," he said. "Russia is isolating itself from its own neighbors, and it is doing this with its own hands."
There is wide agreement that Russia could have prevented the sudden and chaotic disintegration of Akayev's government, either by stepping forward to support him or by brokering an orderly transition of power. But it did neither, apparently believing Akayev's assurances that the situation was under control.
"The only possible explanation for what happened is the gross, systemic miscalculation of the situation…. All of us have erred in believing in the general passiveness of the masses … and that authoritarianism will continue to prevail on the territory of the former USSR, no matter what," said Alexei Malashenko, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.
"The developments in Kyrgyzstan vividly demonstrate how wrong we were. They also demonstrate how rotten, unviable and brittle these regimes are," Malashenko said. "What happened in Bishkek shows that all the post-Soviet regimes are literally colossi with feet of clay — the slightest turmoil in their societies is enough to make these regimes crumble."
Suddenly, governments from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in Central Asia to Belarus and Moldova on Europe's borders appear vulnerable to public rage, which has fueled increasingly muscular movements that have overturned questionable election results in Georgia, Ukraine and now Kyrgyzstan.
Even Russia, where there has been talk of amending the constitution to extend Russian President Vladimir V. Putin's control past its legal mandate ending in 2008, seems suddenly vulnerable, although it has a massive security apparatus and broad new controls on democratic structures designed in part to prevent such a scenario.
"There is no doubt that as a result of all the latest revolutions around Russia, a transition of power in Russia
is starting to look more and more probable," said former democratic legislator Irina Khakamada, who unsuccessfully ran against Putin in 2004.
"The Russian people have already seen that it is possible to fight the government, and win," she said.
The resonance of the ebullient protesters in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan's capital, was apparent Friday in Belarus, where nearly 1,000 pro-democracy demonstrators marched near the palace of President Alexander Lukashenko, a tough, Soviet-style ruler who last year sponsored what observers termed a falsified referendum to extend his stay in office.
Police quickly cracked down on the protest and arrested the leaders, threatening them with up to three years in prison.
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