Posted on 03/04/2005 9:57:56 AM PST by pittsburgh gop guy
Not only would Pat Toomey have defeated Hoeffel, he would have allowed President Bush to carry PA. With Arlen Specter as the GOP Senate candidate, President Bush underperformed in the Lehigh Valley and turnout wasn't as high as it should have in the rest of the "T," and Specter got out the RINO vote in spades in the Philly suburbs (where Kerry/Specter signs were prevalent) and those voters swung the election to Kerry. I think that Bush would have received 51% (instead of the 48.4% he got) had Toomey been the GOP Senate nominee.
I'm not convinced, but we'll never know.
Presidential years tend to bring out voters that usually may not vote. Penn is more Dem than Rep, so more Dems were destined to turnout. In mid terms it's who has the most motivated base. I wish Spectre's challenge had been in a mid term '06 or '02 election.
"I didn't think Jim Maloney was actually pro-life, just less pro-abort than some others."
I actually made the roadie from Indy to western PA for Toomey during his primary against Specter. Needless to say, I wasn't pleased with Santorum's backing of Specter. Part of me would love to see him lose because of that foolishness. Nevertheless, he's a good conservative, and I'll be sending him a check or two in '06.
What does it matter now anyway? Bush won the election! I bet Fast Eddy promised Hafer he would appoint her to Specter's open spot if he does not finish his term.
I disagree.
I don't know what I would have done if I had been a Pennsylvania primary voter, but here is my arguement that, regardless of anything else, this was the best outcome, not only for the party, but for the pro-life movement:
1. Specter, while personally bad on abortion, is decent on judges. Bork aside (who is, in my opinion, a little weird, although I don't think I would have voted against him), Specter has been great. We have Thomas because of him, and he has voted for 100% for Bush's judicial picks. And for all practical purposes, judges make the law on abortion right now. Furthermore, Specter won his race with 0 money from the national party and 0 focus from prominent folks etc.
2. Toomey may have won, but he may have lost. There is no way to be sure, but even if he had won, it would have taken lots of national money and focus. As I already pointed out, Specter took 0. In the meantime:
Burr 52%, Bowles 48%
Murkowski 49%, Knowles 46%
Vitter, 51%, Others 49%
Thune, 51%, Dashle 49%
Martinez 49%, Castor 48%
It seems likely, that had we not been able to dump as much money and focus into these races, we may have lost one, or even two of them. If Toomey had then lost, it would have been a disaster. Had he won, we still would have been down a Senator or two that votes our way on abortion. It would have been even worse had he lost.
Also, imagine had we lost the South Dakota or Florida senate race! Both of those would have been major blows. Knocking off Dashle was huge, and I think Castor is one of the worst, terrorist appeasing losers I've ever seen. It would have terrified me to see her in the Senate.
In the end, I think that focusing on other races was more important, and helped not only the party, but the pro-life cause.
And that's fine with me. I understand the sentiment about the backing of Spectre, but from my vantage point here in WA with a Dem Legislature, Senate, two Senators and stolen Gov race I wouldn't be able to understand the justification of leaving a real conservative out to hang over Spectre.
Glad you won't be doing that.
ping
Bob Casey Jr. is a big govt. Dem without his Dad's character.
His dad was/is the last democrat I will ever vote for.
I am a former dem(shh)
First of all, Specter has not been "decent" on judges, he has been pretty bad. He has not lifted one finger to help any conservative judicial nominees, with the sole exception of Justice Thomas, who had the fortune of being nominated a few months before Specter faced Republican primary voters and thus was positioning himself to the right. Don't forget that Specter voted against the judicial nomination of Jeff Sessions, who a few years later became a Republican Senator from Alabama. And as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, Specter can pretty much block any conservative nominee he see fits, and has "warned" Bush not to nominate "extremists." So had Toomey received that 1% extra he needed to defeat Specter it would have been a huge coup for President Bush's judicial nominees.
And as for your theory that GOP Senate nominees in other states would have been underfinanced had Toomey won the nomination, remember that (i) the NRSCC actually spent quite a bit of money to reelect Specter, first in the primary and then in the general election; and (ii) the NRSCC would have received a hell of a lot more in monetary contributions had it not supported Specter over Toomey in the primary. Toomey would have been able to raise plenty of money without the NRSCC's help, and we would have ended up with the same number of GOP Senators, except with Jon Kyl as Chairman of Judiciary and with a strong conservative in Toomey instead of a RINO in Specter.
IMHO, Santorum's toast as long as the Philly machine rallies behind Junior.
I went out yesterday with a friend of mine who works in the Senate. He said the GOP leadership is really concerned about this seat.
NOOOOOOOOOOO (banging head on computor desk) Bang, bang, bang
Ok now that I'm thru with my fit.....this is really bad news....does anyone think that Santorum has a ghost of a chance of winning????? And what did Fast Eddie promise to Babs?????? OHHHHHH this is soooooo bad.....
The uber-right folks out there that I still know are VERY PO'd at Santorum for backing SPECTRE in the primary. They'll sit this one out. As long as Ed Rendell gets out the dead vote in Philly, this one goes Dem.
Well of course it's up to Penn voters. As it was up to Rep Penn voters to decide who they wanted to represent them in the primary. They narrowly chose Spectre. That's the other little reality rarely mentioned. Rep voters without a gun to their head made a decision conservatives didn't like. Time to get over it.
And far as I'm concerned, I have every right to evaluate what will affect the Republican party at national level and future elections. It is MY call that ousting a conservative Republican in a "blue" state ultimately hurts the long term potential of making Penn a swing state in Presidential elections.
Nor will I hide my disgust at anyone that contributes to that loss. I have no sympathy for so called "conservatives" that don't have the ability to appreciate what they have. A rarity in the current political climate. A real conservative Rep in a "blue state".
I'm registered libertarian therefore i can't vote in republican primaries. Most people on this board seem to assume everyone else is republican and equate that with the last word on conservatism.
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