N. Korea: U.S. Is Shaping Plan to Pressure North Koreans

NYT ^ | 02/14/05 | DAVID E. SANGER

[TigerLikesRooster]

In the end, all boil down to China.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Ping!

[WestVirginiaRebel]

"There are many things we can do."

Let Lil' Kim sweat over the possibilities. Muah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

[Drammach]

Quarantine won't work without the cooperation of China and S. Korea..

Presently, neither nation seems to be willing to cooperate..

[EQAndyBuzz]

"The initial steps are contained in a classified "tool kit" of techniques to pressure North Korea that has been refined in recent weeks by the National Security Council. The new strategies would intensify and coordinate efforts to track and freeze financial transactions that officials say enable the government of Kim Jong Il to profit from counterfeiting, drug trafficking and the sale of missile and other weapons technology. "

And this is bad, why?

[dufekin]

South Korea is irrelevant; the demilitarized zone (no joke, that's the name for the heavily militarized border zone) leaves no holes for commerce except one negotiated hole for Southern "tourists" to the North. China probably would be willing to cooperate, especially now that the certifiably insane genocidal terrorist communist despot threatens them with nuclear weapons. I think that we'll get more cooperation than you might think.

[Drammach]

The "tool kit" addresses financial transactions related to illegal activities..
Nothing wrong with that, it's a fine thing..
But it will not solve the problem.. ( It probably won't exacerbate it either, but that's not the point..)

When I say quarantine, I mean it literally.. Like a "blockade"..
NOTHING goes in or out..

That includes "Humanitarian Aid"..
If the N. Koreans get hungry enough, they will settle the issue for us, without outside intervention..

[Drammach]

I spent 9 years in the army, I know a little bit about the DMZ..
The idea that it "leaves no holes" for anything, period, is questionable at best.. smuggling, refugees, NK saboteurs, all come through the border..
The traffic is sporadic, but it happens on a regular enough basis..

As for China's willingness to cooperate, China acts in China's best interests.. as China perceives said interests..

Translation:
North Korea wouldn't be a problem unless China wanted it to be a problem..
Or, only until China considers it a problem..
Make no mistake..
If Li'l Kimmy becomes a liability in China's eyes, Kim will die a "sudden and tragic death"..
And someone else will take his place..

N. Korea is just one of China's tools... nothing more..

[jriemer]

Quarantine won't work without the cooperation of China and S. Korea..
Presently, neither nation seems to be willing to cooperate..

You forget Japan and they are motivated: Japan Urges North Korea to Rejoin Disarmament Talks - FR
[snip]TOKYO, Feb. 11 - The day after North Korea declared that it possessed nuclear weapons, Japan's prime minister urged the North to re-engage in disarmament talks. He spoke as the clock was running down toward a new law that will put economic pressure on North Korea by barring most of its ships from Japanese ports starting March 1. [/snip]

[Drammach]

You forget Japan and they are motivated:

That's all well and good for Japan.. it only applies to them... Japanese ports... and what comes in to Japan..

It does nothing to stop, slow, or otherwise curtail N. Korea's international trade elsewhere in the world.. with nations such as Iran, Yemen, Pakistan, etc...

How about say, Venezuala?
How do Japan's actions prevent N.Korea from trading say, nuclear missiles for oil, with the Communist, Anti-American, Pro-Castro leader of Venezuala ?

Not much..

[jriemer]

It depends on how they implement their law.
If they prevent NK ships from entering port, it's effective for them but rather toothless for the rest of the world.
If Japan starts searching ships heading to / from NK to guarantee that NK goods aren't eventually destined to Japan, that's good for Japan and the rest of the world.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Ping

[Drammach]

But Japan's new law only bars "most" N.Korean ship from docking in Japan..
It's not even ALL NK ships...

And it says nothing about interdiction on the high seas, or violating NK sovereignty by searching vessels..

Japan is going to have to pass a whole "slew" of laws before that will happen..
This is seriously up to the bordering nations.. China, Russia, South Korea.. and the U.S...
They are the only nations in a position to do something.. and at this point I'm not convinced that the U.S. has any of those three ready to "make a move" to settle this standoff..

We may end up having to take "precipitous action"..

[nuconvert]

Bump

[conservativewasp]

Kim Jung Mentally Ill will be removed when he becomes a problem for China, right now he occuppies alot of peoples attention, which pulls some scrutiny away from China. When China removes him, NK will remain in China sphere of influence, where it has been for hundreds of years. This is all China's game, we aren't really even in it.

[SunkenCiv]

"certifiably insane genocidal terrorist communist despot"

that hits all the bases, other than "pedophile". Proof? I didn't *say* he was a pedophile... ;')

[SunkenCiv]

[SunkenCiv]

conservativewasp may be right. However, the Chinese don't have a faction within NK who could overthrow the Nut Job and install a different one. And if China moves militarily against NK, it could suffer terribly (from embarrassing losses). China would probably do nothing (rather than oppose quarantine) because it needs the US right now, because its economic growth depends on us, and they've got some other current problems.

Google

[SevenofNine]

So all roads to China for North Korea eh


Well not only LIttle Kim be roaney but VERY Dead indeed LOL!

[AmericanInTokyo]

If preventing Japanese companies (or zainichi chosen jin) North Korean related companies in Japan, from filtering nefarious, underground funds and technical goods the DPRK's way, is anything like prohibiting Japanese construction companies from stopping bid rigging (dango), even though it is patently illegal on the books, then Japan will still be a sieve be which North Korea can eek out enough yen flow to keep them on an economic respirator.

There will have to be REALLY aggressive policing by the Japanese authorities and agencies. In fact, I think our own intelligence organizations in Japan would do a better job tracking if Japanese firms are ally stopping the flow, than the Japanese authorities. North Koreans know where there is a will there is a way...and unfortunately there are enough mid and low level Japanese officials to indulge in "mekoboshi", that is, to "look the other way". I hope we can strangle them economically, because as you observe, only two other options come after that....UN sanctions and then outright military action (if not a coup d'etat planned by the west).

The beauty will be if all of this can be resolved without a single shot being fired. I pray for that result.