The following posts I got from you to make a conclusion.
"I made, what I think are very generous assumptions to the anti-ID crowd,..."
"crowd" a very eloquent scientific term.
"... and considered this as a simple probability problem."
You still lack to show me your simple calculations and tell me which factors you assumed as stochastically dependent and independent. It's not only pencil work.
"We are talking on the order of about 1045 hydrogen atoms and 1044 carbon atoms. Both estimates >> Avogadro’s constant."
That assumption you never mentioned before.
"Recall that we are working with a large sphere, and very small things. When you consider it all, turns out that the average density is 10-3 Angstrom-3 for H and 10-4 Angstrom-3 for C. This means an average separation of about 3000 angstroms (quite a chasm) between the critical organic atoms C and H. "
Density is 10-3 Angstrom-3 for H, pardon? What do you want to say? An H-atom size is about 0.3 Angström or 30 pm so... that was just a joke but is this estimation for aerially or fluid environment?
Your assumptions are in #151:
"The rest is statistical mechanics..."
As I remember statistical mechanics is about gas pressure. So what consistence and pressure you assume for your atmosphere?
Some more at #160:
"You still can't produce a probability that isn't zero."
You too.
My conclusion:
You try to hide your estimations and calculations.
It doesn't bother me what kind of degree you got even if it is something in natural science, you don't act as a natural scientist.
Play your games with someone less capable in science. Try it at some Sunday Schools.
To all others:
I want to mention what we even don't know what kind of molecules we got before earth even existed. A probe from a comet will help to answer this question. Until then results of probability calculations like the above one are just a nice waste of time.
Just to remember:
According to scientific theories all atoms heavier than Hydrogen were produced inside of stars. Therefore the earth is made out of stardust. Therefore we are stardust.
My Dear MHalblaub,
If a probability >> 10-100 000 isn't zero, may I suggest a few math and science textbooks? What's the probability of drawing a specific card at random from a standard deck of 52 cards? If I say 0.019, do I need to show my work?
I understood Free Republic to be a forum of news, critical thinking, and good natured humor. I thought the ignorant and emotional interchange of those who demand to be spoon feed, was for other blogs. Critical thinking is our advantage as conservatives over the emotion and ignorance of the left.
A Northern-Line train leaves Waterloo Station headed North. At the River Thames the train reaches a constant velocity of 51’s-1. A man on the train is walking North at 4’s-1. He is eating an 8” chutney-prawn sandwich oriented N-S at a rate of 0.25”s-1. There is an ant on the sandwich moving away from the man’s mouth at 0.3”s-1. What is the 2D velocity vector of the ant relative to Nelson's Column?
A critical thinker doesn’t need the answer, he can figure it out for himself. If his solution disagrees with the one proposed, he then confronts the proposer with a reasoned argument. An emotional person is blinded by ideology; he nitpicks, "what kind of bread," "how much of it is already eaten," "is there grafitti on the train," "what kind of nasty British NIH denture work does he have," "prove your calculation," "what if he's walking backwards," "this isn't a physics problem, physics is the study of energy," "how 2+2 can possibly = 4," etc...
The exercise discussed is a derivative of the classic problem of Huxley's monkeys. Some statistical mechanics books use this as a basic lesson in large numbers and timescales. Huxley seemed reasonable at first glance, but nay. I didn’t believe it until I did the work for myself. Based the perceived emotion of your response, I don't think you will either.
Cheers!