U.S. Dollar Hits All-Time Low Vs. Euro @$1.33.35

Forbes ^ | 11.30.2004 | Associated Press

[Dog Gone]

It was a Connecticut lender of all places. I found it on an internet search and refinanced about 15 months ago.

[FITZ]

But if we have to import certain necessities like oil --- how does a weak dollar help us? I know we can still import most of the durables because China is still tied to the dollar.

[FITZ]

In contrast, Dell and HP computers are as cheap and ever, and will be selling like hotcakes everywhere.

Why wouldn't they just buy Chinese made electronics which are quite a bit cheaper than USA made?

[Moonman62]

But if we have to import certain necessities like oil --- how does a weak dollar help us?

It helps the 5% of our economy that exports. It screws the other 95%.

[Dog Gone]

Because it makes our goods much cheaper abroad, and building up manufacturing is a good thing.

Look at it this way, Americans feel it primarily in oil prices which still don't approach inflation-adjusted highs. Europe is screaming bloody murder about the dollar. Our tourists aren't going there. Their tourists are flocking to this country. We're rebuilding our country with their economic blood. What's not to like about that?

[Cobra64]

Glad I bought my M5 three years ago.

[FITZ]

Well the free traders told me that letting go of manufacturing was a good thing --- we would somehow benefit if foreign goods were very cheap so we could buy them. Now the weak-dollarers are telling me the opposite --- that foreign goods should be expensive and we should want manufacturing. We should want expensive goods and expensive oil and other imports --- who is right?

[rodguy911]

I buy a lot of cork from Portugal it has gone up 62% in a year.

[RightOnTheLeftCoast]

Plot that Euro chart back to the Euro's introduction, and you'll see we're right back where it started.

Meanwhile, this is great news for U.S. exporters, after two decades of getting the NAFTA shaft-a.

[rodguy911]

How did you ever get 3.75% the lowest it ever hit in S. Fla was around 4.5%, you stole that money.

[cornfedcowboy]

Meanwhile, this is great news for U.S. exporters, after two decades of getting the NAFTA shaft-a

I import machines from Europe. This makes it tough.

[the invisib1e hand]

Now they're posting to four decimals...

[Happygal]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last 10-15 years the dollar would seasonally dip to 1.35-1.40 against the British Pound, then go up to 1.80+? That it dipped 2 cents does not seem such a big deal!?

This is a dip against the Euro, not the British Pound.

The British Pound is strong against the Euro. A few months ago the Euro and the dollar had parity practically.

[Dog Gone]

It's not so much that we want expensive foreign imports as we want cheap American exports. Increasing demand for our products is obviously a good thing for our economy.

And foreign imports haven't really gotten that much more expensive. China's currency is pegged to ours, so there's been no change in the cost of their exports to us. Europeans have decreased their profit margins on their exports to the US to try to remain competitive, but it's gotten to the point where no more cutting can help.

This is almost certainly a temporary phenomenon. As the American economy heats up, we'll raise interest rates and the dollar will strengthen. And a robust American economy lifts the rest of the world with it. So they're just going to have to endure some temporary pain in order to make that happen.

The one country that gets a free ride out of this is China, which is why we are trying to get them to unpeg the yuan.

[FITZ]

Meanwhile, this is great news for U.S. exporters, after two decades of getting the NAFTA shaft-a.

If we don't have to pay too much for raw materials --- and it will help only whatever exporters we have left --- I just hope it's not the same people who applauded NAFTA that are applauding the weak dollar it's led to --- they would have to contradict themselves.

[Dog Gone]

How did you ever get 3.75% the lowest it ever hit in S. Fla was around 4.5%, you stole that money.

I dunno. It was significantly lower to refinance to a 10-year loan than any loan of a longer term, so I jumped on it. My monthly payment dropped and my term shortened by about 11 years.

Any moron could see the wisdom in that.

[Brilliant]

You don't really understand this, do you?

The dollar is going down vis-a-vis the euro primarily. The decline against other currencies is not nearly as severe. The reason it is dropping like a rock against the euro is that the EU has a restrictive monetary policy that is killing their economy. They don't buy, we do. Because we are buying more of everything, we are buying more imports. They are not. The result is that we have a trade deficit, and the dollar goes down.

But who does it hurt? Primarily the EU. The EU cannot sell its goods in America without increasing the price or reducing their margin--and it's because the dollars they are selling their goods for are worth less to them. On the other hand, we can sell our goods in Europe for the same price and make more money because the euros we are receiving in payment are worth more.

Of course, it is true that we've got to pay more for imports--mainly oil. But not as much as we'd have to pay if the government restricted imports, which is the other alternative.

[FITZ]

China's currency is pegged to ours, so there's been no change in the cost of their exports to us.

But that seems like the problem to me --- Chinese products are still far cheaper --- they don't have the tax burden to the USA government like American made products do. We'll still be importing from Mexico and China --- and what if the Europeans turn to those cheaper countries to buy and still don't buy from us?

[Dalite]

"I still believe the watch word at the Fed is deflation even when they talk inflation."

I also believe that deflation is their major concern.

I think Greenspan will try to get interest rates up to 6 to 7% as quickly as possible.

This will help to slow inflation, while getting the lending rate up high enough that deflation becomes less of a concern.

Also, the higher and the quicker the rates go up, the more "wiggle room" he leaves himself for the trademark "soft landing".

[Dog Gone]

They might, if those countries produce the things they want, which they still don't in large quantities. The problem for them is more on the export side of the equation. If the world's largest consumer, the USA, quits buying stuff from Europe because it's too expensive, who are they going to sell it to, Rwanda?

The truth is that economic times in Europe are FAR worse today than they are here today. Check out their unemployment rates. Look at their deficits in comparison to GDP.

They are hurting.

They just need to hurt a little more, partly to encourage political and fiscal changes to their policies, and partly to bring the might American economic engine up to full force once again.