Posted on 11/02/2004 7:36:38 PM PST by white trash redneck
The American Jewish Committee, in a tiny sampling of roughly 200 Jewish voters in five battleground states, found roughly 12 to 13 percent of Jews who voted for Al Gore in 2000 switched parties and cast their vote for President George W. Bush on Tuesday.
"From our exit sampling, very strong support for Kerry. But strikingly, a fairly significant number of Jews switching from Gore in 2000 to Bush, somewhere in the order of 12-13%," said David Harris, AJC's executive director, who examined data, which he stressed was not scientific.
Bush won 19% and Gore 80% of the Jewish vote in 2000, according to exit polling. An AJC survey of American Jewish voters in September found 69% would support Kerry and 24% Bush. AJC's Tuesday results suggested slightly stronger gains for Bush in the community.
Harris said that nearly all voters who switched from Gore to Bush "identified either Israel or terrorism (and) 9/11 as the first reason for their decision."
It was not clear if those gains in the Jewish community would be enough to propel Bush to victory.
Overall turnout was extremely high on Tuesday and pundits speculated the large number of new voters would, overall, benefit Kerry. Also, whereas a percentage of Jews in the battleground states are voting for Bush because of his record on Israel or in fighting terrorism, Arab Americans – popular in the same key battleground states – have moved decidedly away from Bush, perhaps canceling out the gains.
Harris was reluctant to give overall tallies of how Jews polled in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin voted.
"Our principle aim was not numbers per say, it was Jewish voter motivation," he said. Larger exit voter surveys will provide that figure, he noted, "but they won't tell us what we want to know, which is why they voted the way they did and why they switched if they did."
While those who voted for Bush cited Israel and the war on terrorism as key motivating factors, the Kerry voter "is usually driven by domestic issues or it's based on personal qualities defined mostly by their dislike of President Bush," Harris said.
The surveys were sent to AJC members in the five battleground states via email. The email urged recipients to forward the survey to other Jews in their state.
AJC also separately polled 370 Russian Jews at precincts in New York and Philadelphia. Harris said the results were the "mirror image in the opposite direction" of the AJC's September poll. At least 75% said they were voting for Bush, citing his Israel stance and his strong leadership in the war on terrorism.
Thanks for the ping.
cnn had it up 5%(24) i'll bet with all those who don't admit it's 30%
(80)(0.12) = 9.6 (ie. ~10)
19 + 10 = 29% voted for Bush in 2004.
That means 71% of the Jewish vote was against Bush in 2004.
The Israel Swing Factor[T]he greatest political strength of American Jewry lies in the fact that it is a uniquely swayable bloc . The issue of support for Israel has proven capable of spurring a sizable portion of Jews to switch parties - in large enough numbers to tip the scales in national or statewide elections. Moreover, the "Israel swing vote" is especially open to political courtship because, unlike the interests of other minority groups, support for Israel has long been compatible with traditional Republican and Democratic agendas. By contrast, most other issues (abortion, affirmative action, etc.) cannot be embraced by Republicans or Democrats without alienating certain support bases. A pro-Israel stance runs no such risk. On the other hand, being distinctively unsupportive of Israel can significantly hurt a candidate's chances.
by Jeffrey S. Helmreich
15 January 2001
| Year | Candidate | % of Jewish Vote |
| 1916 | ||
| Hughes (R) | 45 | |
| Wilson (D) | 55 | |
| 1920 | ||
| Harding (R) | 43 | |
| Cox (D) | 19 | |
| Debs (Soc) | 38 | |
| 1924 | ||
| Coolidge (R) | 27 | |
| Davis (D) | 51 | |
| La Folette (Progressive) | 22 | |
| 1928 | ||
| Hoover (R) | 28 | |
| Smith (D) | 72 | |
| 1932 | ||
| Hoover (R) | 18 | |
| Roosevelt (D) | 82 | |
| 1936 | ||
| Landon (R) | 15 | |
| Roosevelt (D) | 85 | |
| 1940 | ||
| Wilkie (R) | 10 | |
| Roosevelt (D) | 90 | |
| 1944 | ||
| Dewey (R) | 10 | |
| Roosevelt (D) | 90 | |
| 1948 | ||
| Dewey (R) | 10 | |
| Truman (D) | 75 | |
| Wallace (Progressive) | 15 | |
| 1952 | ||
| Eisenhower (R) | 36 | |
| Stevenson (D) | 64 | |
| 1956 | ||
| Eisenhower (R) | 40 | |
| Stevenson (D) | 60 | |
| 1960 | ||
| Nixon (R) | 18 | |
| Kennedy (D) | 82 | |
| 1964 | ||
| Goldwater (R) | 10 | |
| Johnson (D) | 90 | |
| 1968 | ||
| Nixon (R) | 17 | |
| Humphrey (D) | 81 | |
| Wallace (I) | 2 | |
| 1972 | ||
| Nixon (R) | 35 | |
| McGovern (D) | 65 | |
| 1976 | ||
| Ford (R) | 27 | |
| Carter (D) | 71 | |
| McCarthy (I) | 2 | |
| 1980 | ||
| Reagan (R) | 39 | |
| Carter (D) | 45 | |
| Anderson (I) | 14 | |
| 1984 | ||
| Reagan (R) | 31 | |
| Mondale (D) | 67 | |
| 1988 | ||
| Bush (R) | 35 | |
| Dukakis (D) | 64 | |
| 1992 | ||
| Bush (R) | 11 | |
| Clinton (D) | 80 | |
| Perot (I) | 9 | |
| 1996 | ||
| Dole (R) | 16 | |
| Clinton (D) | 78 | |
| Perot (I) | 3 | |
| 2000 | ||
| Bush (R) | 19 | |
| Gore (D) | 79 | |
| Nader (G) | 1 |
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