Posted on 11/01/2004 4:47:13 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 97.3 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 98.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 89.4 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 86.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 4.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 74.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 3.2 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 6.2 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 58.3 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 96.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 23.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 99.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 4.4 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 97.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 52.8 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 97.4 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 97.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 97.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 7.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 5.6 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 1.7 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 26.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32.5 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 97.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 84.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 77.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 33.6 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 11.8 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 61.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 2.9 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 91.5 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 60.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 98.7 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 12.3 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 26.8 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 1.7 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 96.3 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 94.6 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.9 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.7 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 2.6 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 90.3 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 8.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 87.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 45.2 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 97.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 286 | 252 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 286 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 252 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.24 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/25/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/18/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
I can't help but think the Kerry/lib/dems/complicit-msm have one more bucket of mud to sling today.
Still up, thats good. The betting is on Bush. Hope the votes are!!!!
holy toledo 276?? wow, that means it's anybody's ballgame.
And WI, MN, and NH makes 310 for Bush.
Forget realclearpolitics. This is the absolute best analysis out there.
Thanks for posting it.
I like the percentage factor, instead of the lasting polling data for each state.
I agree that Bush will carry FL and OH. He will lose PA and MI.
But, Bush's strategy has more options than Kerry's.
This table points that fact out quite nicely.
I'd put a few bucks on the Hawaii race....
dung.
The bettors better be right about OH and FL. No margin for error.
I've said it before, I believe Bush is in the fight of his life for Ohio...and the polls are ignoring, for the most part, college students and their cell phones. These people, normally only interested in sex and partying, have been energized by the frenzied Bush haters and will turn outin force, and Ohio has how many college students??? Thousands? And does any Freeper think these skulls full of mush will vote with their heads over their hearts???
Most places I have seen are putting New Mexico in the Kerry pile, whereas the betting here has it for Bush at 61%.
Any local FReepers know what's going down there?
Also (I know you have lots of time on your hands), it would be nice to plot the symmetrical plot with Kerry's numbers below the Green line. Kind of like the Iowa Electronic Market does it.
I'll take it.
Over the years politicos have tried to energize the college vote and have never had much success. Even in the 60s there were a handfull of hot-spots but most of college bound America was tuned out.
Whenever somebody talks about the college kids, I remember 1984 when I was really active in College Republicans. We had a great crew, walked precincts, ran GOTV phone banks and were really into it. On election day, I had two exams and didn't walk out of my last class until 5:00pm...as I came out of the building I ran into a bud who asked if I was up for a beer.
Next morning, I woke up and realized *sh&t* I didn't vote.
dung.
BTW ... Have you played with this?
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