Posted on 10/30/2004 3:45:49 PM PDT by okstate
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a one-point lead over President Bush nationally and had the edge in six key battleground states in a tight White House race, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Saturday.
Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent, well within the margin of error, in the latest three-day national tracking poll. Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent on Friday.
The bitter rivals face a frantic sprint to the finish, hunting for votes in about 10 swing states that hold the key to a win on Tuesday. Neither candidate has been able to establish a clear advantage or break the 50 percent barrier since the tracking poll began on Oct. 7.
"Bush continues to hold on to solid support among Republicans, investors, married voters and born-again Christians," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry expands his lead among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics."
Kerry reclaimed small leads in Michigan and Iowa, and also led Bush in Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Bush had the edge in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and expanded his lead in the showdown state of Ohio from one to five points.
Most of the leads in the 10 state polls were within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The biggest lead in any state was Bush's nine-point advantage in New Mexico.
Kerry is still getting the support of only 84 percent of black voters, short of the more than 90 percent claimed by Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and enough of a shortfall to make a difference in a few critical states in such a tight election.
The Massachusetts senator had a 48-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by four points in the daily tracking poll.
The national poll of 1,209 likely voters was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.8 percent.
The polls of about 600 likely voters in each of the battleground states were taken Wednesday through Saturday.
The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 50-45 percent; Florida, Kerry 49-47 percent; Iowa, Kerry 47-46 percent; Michigan, Kerry 48-47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-46 percent; New Mexico, Bush 52-43 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-46 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-44 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 52-44 percent.
Good grief, the sauce is burning again. Please, some of these states are moving 7 points a day, in OPPOSITE directions!
zogby is finishing himself off as a pollster.
Of course, he may release a last minute poll that isn't sauced in an attempt to save his reputation.
Zogby and Reuters, a marriage made in . . . .
Zogby is such trash. His nunbers are swinging in all different directions. And he is the ONLY pollster to give Kerry a lead.
Wisconsin poll way way off. No way is Kerry up 8. Also Kerry is not ahead in IA or MN, IMHO. Florida polling due to early voting I think is useless. Ohio looks good, but you have to wonder about any Zogby state polls. He was so off in 2002 that I'm surprised he even bothers.
I find the figures in Florida quite bizarre. Is he excluding the panhandle?
D
With the plus or minus percentage point - this just means its a dead heat. Which alot of the polls show. Nothing new!
These interactive polls are crap. Complete crap.. The wild swings each day prove it.
LOL, he has Bush winning almost all his states by relatively big margins (Colorado +5, NM +9, Ohio +5 etc), while most of Kerry's leads in all the prime real estate are squeakers of 1-2 points that are just enough to make him look like a landslide electoral vote winner. Yep, that's how it will work out in the end, I'm sure. For sure, John.
The Comeback Kid is surging!!!!!
GAG!!!!!!!!!!
These state-by-state numbers are insane!
Why oh Why is Zogby putting Florida in Kerry's column but Ohio in Bush's.
I have no doubt the Dems think they have a better shot at Ohio than Florida (unless they told Zogby they have 200 extra ballot boxes all ready to go be counted once the polls close.)
I think Colorado looks close to accurate...Florida I think is off. Iowa probably off a bit... Michigan is probably right on..Minnesota could be..could go Bushes way too..New Mexico looks right...Nevada looks very accurate...Ohio looks accurate...Pennsylvania looks accurate...Wisconsin looks WAYYYYYYYYYYYY off.
These are TELEPHONE polls and they are still that bad!
BULL#!*$---this is the only poll that uses these numbers--
BULL#!*$---this is the only poll that uses these numbers--
BULL#!*$---this is the only poll that uses these numbers--
sorry for the triple post
I'll bet he does..
OH HOLD ON!! WAIT A SECOND!
Are you telling me Zogby's state polls are "interactive"?
As in they type of polls you can take at MSNBC, CNN etc??
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.