I know why Osama released this video. He has to quell a division in his organization. There's a power struggle and he needed this video out to thumb his nose at Bush, in order to try and solidify his base.
Osama is dead if he can't convince whoever is harboring him that he still retains control of Al Qaeda. Without Al Qaeda, Osama is useless... even as a figure head he'd be useless.
If Bush wins, Osama is screwed, and very likely he'll be handed over to us or silently killed. If Kerry wins, Osama wins and we'll probably see quick and rapid cleaning house in Al Qaeda of a few top leaders who thought they could take over with Osama out of the way.
This is a diabolical game of realpolitik and Osama is in trouble. He only has the card of fear to play, and he's got one hell of a bluffing face.
"This is going to give the president a 3-5 point boost by Monday"
Maybe- maybe not- but the fact that three years ago Bush said he wanted OBL dead or alive will be picked up by Kerry and hammered home by his minions and in tv ads.
OBL dead would have been more preferable...I think his tv appearence will have an unstable effect on the electorate.
Kerry belongs on Gilligans Island.......
Two points:
1: G.W.B. continues his use of "my opponent" instead of speaking his name. It's a brilliant strategy of subliminal non-recogonition.
2: A lesson to us all on how to call someone a liar without saying the word.
Bin Laden gave a present to the Bush campaign.
It'll take serious stupidity to believe OBL said anything that helps Kerry.