Posted on 10/29/2004 10:36:16 AM PDT by West Coast Conservative
THE WORD FROM A HIGHLY-PLACED SOURCE
I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” A lot of folks want to know who this source is and are suspicious of campaign leaks. Let’s say this information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.
Why is info given to me (and Kathryn)? I suspect that in some GOP circles, Kerry Spot and NRO are seen as a good way to reach the Bush base voters who are plugged into the Internet, keeping up with the news, etc. I think the info gets thrown my way to make sure the base isn't being panicked by the Kerry spin from some corners the mainstream media...
So here’s the news for today.
Among early and absentee votes cast already, Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.
There’s a great contrast in the respective get-out-the-vote operations for Bush and Kerry. Around 25 percent of registered voters report being contacted by a Bush-Cheney volunteer, most often members of their church or community organization or neighbor. About 19 percent of registered voters have been contacted on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, but the vast majority of these contacts are by paid temps of the campaign, the DNC, or a related 527. Will the personal touch have an effect?
In Hawaii, the Bush campaign has quietly had its eye on this state for a while, and been building a surprisingly strong statewide organization with more than 2,000 volunteers. Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.
In Florida, the campaign expects Bush to end up with an estimated 100,000 vote advantage among early and absentee voters.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive. Bush is competitive in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas). Right now Kerry leads 44 percent Bush 41 percent. Kerry needed over 50 percent out of Clark county to win NV. But Bush within a few thousands votes of heavy Dem county.
Finally, a big point of enthusiasm for the GOP is their deep bench of Bush surrogates who can garner big crowds and lots of media attention. The President is in New Hampshire and Ohio today, vith Ah-nuld. Cheney is going to Hawaii. Tommy Franks is in Florida, as is John McCain and former President Bush. Rudy Giuliani is in Iowa, Mitt Romney is in Michigan, and former President Bush will also be in Pennsylvania later.
[Posted 10/29 01:24 PM]
bump
Things that make you go hmmmm...
Those that know don't tell .....
Good stuff. If we take Florida, Kerry would have to thread a needle through the midwest better than even Betsy Ross could.
I am growing in optimism...and that ain't easy!!!!
Looks like our team is all over Gore territory.
Darn, our "bench" is good....
"Mitt Romney is in Michigan" - now that is a blast from the past! George Romney country! Cool!
I wonder if they are gonna send Largent to Washington?
Now, if they did that b/c they thought WA was in play, then, I would probably just go out to dinner on Tuesday rather than watch the returns, because it would be all over!!!!
Gee, more than 587,hmm?
What concerns me is if WI, MI, PA, and NJ all go for Kerry. That is a distinct possiblity.
I think so. My wife and daughter have been waging their own vote for W campaign for the last month, and doing good at it, too. Makes me wish I lived in a swing state.
Great...wish it also included OH !!!!!!
Bush only needs one of following to win:
PA, WI, OH, NH, HI, MN, MI
He picked up IA and NM giving him 266. He needs one more of the above if that IA, NM pick remains true.
Badger poll puts him up in WI, FOX puts him up in OH. Tied in HI and MN.
I just got an email from BC04 that Vikings head coach Mike Tice will appear with GWB this Saturday at the Target Center in Mpls.
That was exactly my thought as I read that!
NB: the "huge lead" is "Among early and absentee votes cast already"
Too bad Floridas is NOT the one that is going to determine W's Future.
OHIO is going to do him/us in.
"bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000
Gee, more than 587,hmm?
DITTO
Kerry needs more than all that to win. If we get Florida we don't need Ohio as long as there are a couple more surprises, such as Hawaii and Wisconsin.
Bush has huge lead in FL, bigger than his advantage in Florida in 2000.Hey, is that supposed to be funny? ;'D
Kerry put up ad about how bad the economy was, while Hawaii has one of the lowest unemployment rates in country.[singing] Alo-ha-way...
In New Mexico, Bush is only few thousand behind in early/absentee ballots in Bernalillo county, a heavy Democrat county.New Mexico will probably be one of the few bright spots for Kerry, but perhaps not. Kerry will win in the D of C, and perhaps as few as ten states.
In Nevada, there is little expectation that this state will be all that competitive.Hmm... legalized prostitution... gambling-based economy... "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas"... wonder why W's political and social stances aren't having more impact in Nevada? :'D
George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent
Great minds....., huh? :-)
ping
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