Posted on 10/25/2004 10:33:48 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK
Monday,October 25 2004 ELECTORAL COLLEGE UPDATE: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.
In our initial electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.
As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Senator Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.
As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.
Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout. J. McIntyre 11:28 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend
Very good source for scenarios on Bush winnning!
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See? I'm not completely nuts. :-)
From your keyboard to Rush at this moment.
I say Bush will break 300.
There are way too many numbers that W has to overcome, that have NOT been overcome by anyone in the past. Dow is low since Labor day, that by itself is a powerful predictor. Right Track vs Wrong Track numbers are increasingly getting worse. However, even if those two cases were ignored, Liberal Cheating appratus is better placed this year than ever before. So much so that even RNC Chairman is pointing it out and for the first time EVER, the Voter Fraud Issue is being discussed in media. If Pubs show backbone for next 4 years and make election reform their priority, than things could change, but it is TOO LATE for this election cycle.
Unfortunately, I believe Kerry's backup plan for Florida and Ohio is to steal them. A small army of lawyers, provisional ballots, massive voter fraud and so forth appear to be the Democrats' insurance policies.
Maybe I'm just feeling lousy 'cause I'm tired of all this and there's still a looooooooooong week to go . . .
You may have noticed that once or twice (or 6,000 times!!) I have taken issue with the "...if Bush loses Ohio [Florida] he's toast..." rhetoric. Here's a nice explanation as to why.
I'm also getting tired of the Doom and Gloomers here. I'll be glad when the election is over.
Not to mention, Kerry is doing much better at this point, then Gore was doing. In addition to that, Gore did not have the Fraud-apparatus focused on right states. Kerry and company know, the game is in Ohio and Florida, and they are all set. There is no way they will let W have this one.
Maybe I am being optimistic....BUT, I think TIPP, Zogby and Fox polls could be right...maybe the true picture if BUSH is ahead by close to 5 or 6 pts...either way, after all that has been overcome, Bush will win and I feel FL and Ohio will go Republican! Not long to wait!
If you take just the last 3 days Oct 21-24, Bush has almost a 4.0 lead. That's GOOD! If it could just get a little better heading into the weekend, like 8-10 pts.
I am listening to Rush and he does not overly confident though.
I also did not like the President's answer when he was asked does he thinks he will lose, or is he prepared to lose, and he said "Well I am not there yet".
Yet!!!
HUH?
ping
If you take just the last 3 days Oct 21-24, Bush has almost a 4.0 lead. That's GOOD! If it could just get a little better heading into the weekend, like 8-10 pts.
In my opinion, the undecided voters are really wanting to vote for Bush....they hesitated to say this because of all the negative MSM, the debates that "told" them Kerry won...when in their minds they knew Bush looked better....I hope this gets tighter and Bush is ahead by this weekend 8-10 pts!!!
i think there is wisdom in your words
Well, you could be; this thread not withstanding.
I'm still standing by Bush by 5-8 points.
Sorry that post was filled with typos.LOL
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