MICHIGAN: Same-sex marriage amendment 65% favor/27%opposed: Bush/Kerry 46% v 43%

DetroitNews | October 22, 2004 | Charlie Cain, and Mark Hornbeck

[rface]

[ snip ]

Proposal 2 is winning by more than 2-to-1, with 65 percent in favor, 27 percent opposed and 9 percent undecided, according to a statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. of East Lansing.

“These are very high numbers. Perhaps the most startling fact is that 81 percent of Republicans are supporting it as do 51 percent of Democrats,” said News pollster Steve Mitchell.

[ snip ]

The ballot proposal is backed by voters of all age groups. Protestants support it, 72-20, and the constitutional amendment is favored by Roman Catholics, 69-22.

[ snip ]

Unions oppose the proposal, saying it interferes with collective bargaining agreements, with many now including domestic partner benefits. But the survey shows two-thirds of union households support Proposal 2, identical to the level of support in nonunion households.

Dana Houle, spokesman for Coalition for a Fair Michigan that opposes the amendment, disputes the poll’s findings.

“We’re confident this is not representative of where voters are right now,”

[ snip ]

The poll also shows President George W. Bush with a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. The race is too close to call and remains within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[ snip ]

< img src="http://www.detnews.com/pix/2004/10/22/asec/102204-p1-tracking-head-clr.gif">

[rface]

the search function won't work for me - this post might be a dupe. - please delete if this is repetative

source here

[rface]

[IndianPrincessOK]

Right now RealClearPolitics has Kerry +2.5 but Bush did not carry this in 2000....still within the margin of error...and will see how it comes along closer to elections!!

Michigan ( 17 Electoral Votes)
>>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 46.1, Gore 51.3, Nader
2.0 (Gore +5.2)

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average | 10/15 - 10/21 - - 44.5 47.0 1.0 Kerry +2.5
EPIC/MRA | 10/18-10/21 610 LV 4.0 43 49 1 Kerry +6
Detroit News | 10/18-20 600 RV 4.0 46 43 1 Bush +3
Survey USA | 10/18-10/20 668 LV 3.9 43 49 1 Kerry +6
Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0 46 47 - Kerry +1
All Michigan Polls | Nader: ON the Ballot - In Court

[etradervic]

I have been told that Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. was very accurate in MI in 2000. Does anybody have their 2000 numbers?

[zr2hammer]

"We’re confident this is not representative of where voters are right now"

....um this survey doesn't have a +/- of 40 points sorry.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Dana Houle, spokesman for Coalition for a Fair Michigan that opposes the amendment, disputes the poll’s findings.

[buffyt]

I don't care if gay couples get married, I just wish they would use the word Gender instead of Sex. I have known so many committed gay couples, together for 30+ years, living quietly, not mentioning that they are gay, not announcing it to the world, no agenda. They just want to be left alone. And this is a small southern Texas town. I really resent the heteros who get divorced and remarried, yet they think that is fine. I know two women who have gotten 6 divorces each! Everyone thinks someone else's sin is worse than their own.

[ride the whirlwind]

I'm quoting Dan from Michigan who said it was Gore 45-40.

[Jacobis]

The statistics are clear. There is no such thing as monogomy in the gay community, a fact that is not changed by "gay marriage." Here is a good source of lots of stats:

http://www.familyresearchinst.org/.

[Dolphy]

The Mitchell Research poll was conducted for the Detroit News and showed the President up by 3. Since Kerry is coming back here Monday and Bush will be making two appearances here next week, I think we have evidence that the race is very tight.

[Dolphy]

Oops, sorry, not enough coffee. I meant to add that I think Mitchell is the one that got the final results here right in 2000. I will try to find that article.

[Timmy]

DOMA propositions on the ballots are the big, undiscussed issue of this campaign. It's why I don't worry about Bush in Ohio and why he is particularly dangerous in several blue states.

[SunkenCiv]

regarding Proposal 1:

Gambling vote may be headed for defeat
by Mark Hornbeck and Charlie Cain
Sunday, October 24, 2004

The state ballot proposal calling for voter approval of gambling expansion may be headed for defeat, thanks largely to an opposition TV ad campaign led by Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

The Proposal 1 constitutional amendment has been losing ground all week, a Detroit News tracking poll shows. Support dropped from 48 percent to 44 percent from Monday to Thursday, while opposition now stands at 38 percent, with 18 percent undecided.

Experts say that if a ballot proposal has less than 50 percent support this close to Election Day it likely will fail. That’s because late undecided voters typically break against ballot measures...

In the presidential race, incumbent George W. Bush leads Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in Michigan, 47-42. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Bush’s lead wavered between 3 and 5 points during the week. Kerry will visit Macomb County on Monday, his first trip to the state since Sept. 15, in an attempt to shore up his support, while President Bush visits Michigan on Wednesday and Thursday.

Other recent polls showed Kerry with a small lead. For example, a Mason-Dixon poll has Kerry up 47-46, and a SurveyUSA poll has Kerry ahead 51-44.

Carroll Doherty, editor of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, said the variance in the polls has been especially pronounced this year. He noted the Associated Press has Kerry ahead nationally by 3 points, Gallup had Bush up by 7 and Fox had Bush leading by 5 this week.

Voter approval gives local folks say over whether a (non-Indian) casino can be built. The more casinos there are, the fewer bucks (theoretically) will be spent on the Lottery. I think the fact is, playing the Lottery will always be more convenient, and the more gambling that's around, the more people gamble. Also, gambling addiction should be lucrative as a widespread disorder -- not for the taxpayers, but for the people involved in therapy.

These two proposals are tailor-made to guarantee a large Republican / conservative turnout on Election Day. And my quite partisan Dim family members are mostly dead-set in favor of Proposal 1. They don't talk about Proposal 2, perhaps because they're in favor of it and feel guilty about that. :')

The Indian casino has to go. Also, casinos should be taxed nice and heavily to pay for Lottery shortfalls and gambling addiction treatment.

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[little jeremiah]

Homosexual Agenda Ping - Yet another defense of marriage state constitutional amendment, looking good, looking good. And it's gotta help GWB. I mean, what is Kerry for, in the marriage/"gay" rights arena?

Let me and Scripter know if anyone wants on/off this pinglist.

Note to buffyt:

I have heard ad nauseum about people whose "gay" friends are monogamous, quiet, peaceloving, non-"gay" agenda promoting, Republican voting, just-like-regular-family types. Well, why don't they speak up against the radical "gay" agenda? Why don't they allow the truth to be told that there are thousands of ex-homosexuals? Why don't they speak up against the indoctrination of kids in schools by homosexual activists?

And normalizing homosexuality does not have the same ranking on the sin list as divorce.

[little jeremiah]

I should have said that divorce doesn't have the same ranking on the sin list as normalizing or promoting homosexuality.

Which one is more destructive to lives and society? Easy divorce is undoubtedly a huge component in societal breakdown. I would never minimize the evil it does. But occasionally there IS a completely valid reason for divorce. There is never been, nor will there ever be, a valid reason for either practicing same sex sodomy or promoting it.

[Lindykim]

snip.......why don't they speak up against the radical "gay" agenda? Why don't they allow the truth to be told that there are thousands of ex-homosexuals? Why don't they speak up against the indoctrination of kids in schools by homosexual activists?


Ex-homosexuals are not only an 'embarrassingly uncomfortable truth" to radical homos., but also to every so-called 'enlightened' politician and talking ass {like O'Reilly} who has jumped onto the vanity-driven 'social enlightenent' agenda. As a consequence, ex-homosexuals are being pressured by the radicals & their 'enlightened' cohorts to become as 'non-existant' as possible.

[Lindykim]

snip...I just wish they would use the word Gender instead of Sex. I have known so


But they're not some sort of 3rd gender. They're human beings created with heterosexual genitalia.

[sweetliberty]

Hogwash! Where'd they take this poll, a queer bar? I'd say that high a percentage of queers themselves don't believe in being able to get married. Not all of them are militant and in-your-face with their perversion and many actually recognize that their "lifestyle" IS perversion.

[Always Right]

I don't care if gay couples get married, I just wish they would use the word Gender instead of Sex. I have known so many committed gay couples, together for 30+ years, living quietly, not mentioning that they are gay, not announcing it to the world, no agenda. They just want to be left alone.

Good point. They obviously don't need gay marriage then....

[Always Right]

Michigan is hugh. If Bush pulls out Michigan, all he needs is Ohio OR Florida OR Minn/Wisc to reach 270+.