Posted on 10/18/2004 4:25:11 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 91.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 80.5 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 6.7 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 72.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 5.7 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 9.6 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 64.3 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 95.7 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 5.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.5 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 8.5 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 94.3 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 56.5 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 94.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 93.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 92.6 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 21.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 9.8 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 2.8 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 20.5 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 33.8 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 77.1 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 66.1 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 44.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 14.2 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 37.5 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 5.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 89.8 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 54.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 23.8 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 34.2 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 95.1 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.7 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 91.6 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 96.5 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 3.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 87.6 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 10.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 79.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 54.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 291 | 247 |
Only 15 more days until we don't have to look at Election 2004 polls anymore...
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
| 10/11 | 57.1% | 276.4 | 32.4 |
| 10/18 | 58.5% | 277.2 | 31.8 |
Somebody has been trying to play the national market at TradeSports.
Has anyone seen signs of that going on in the state markets?
So, if this is accurate, it still comes down to Ohio...That makes me nervous, but I also remeber seeing somewhere here on FR that the Bush team in Ohio is organized for GOTV down to the precinct level, and they are so well organized that it literally has the Kerry campaign scared.
I really hope Bush wins Oregon. If so he'll have won from coast to coast, from border to border and from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
Hard not to call that a mandate.
Bush just came to Medford, Oregon on the 14th, the moderator said it was the biggest crowd she had seen yet. It was a beautiful sunny day with thousands of supporters. It was so good to be there to show him our support. He has got the farmers, ranchers, law enforcement, rural populations sewed up. But we are in competition with Eugene, University of Oregon, and Portland with Kerry/Edwards signs everywhere.
I as sure that Bush will win NM. I have faith in my neighbors to the west.
Close = 40-60%
40-50% = Lean Kerry (Less than 50% chance of Bush win)
50-60% = Lean Bush (More than 50% chance of Bush win)
Working my bottom off to keep Ohio blue for Bush !!!!
We are organized, but it take a lot of man-hours and woman-hours too. If you are in Ohio, you should also be a volunteer. We'd love to have you join our team.
This is looking better and better.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if the only dim states on election day were New York, Illinois, and California?
I know, I'm dreaming!
Sorry, I'm an Illinoisan, but you can bet I'll be doing what I can around here. It's too bad we couldn't get a homosexual marriage ban on the ballot; I believe Illinois would be in play if we had one.
Check the posting titled - "Dear Limey" There is a newspaper in England that is having its readers write personal letters to voters in Clark County Ohio. Trying to influence an American election!!!!!
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