I think this election is perhaps not quite as close as the 2000 election. But I think Kerry is much more devious. He'll probably declare victory even before the networks announce a winner.
Several small things are in our favor this time around that could add up to make all the difference:
Veterans are energized.
Gun owners that sat out 2000 are coming out for the President. (George Will said that there are 4MM NRA members.)
"Security Moms" that might have gone for Democrats in the past over social issues are voting for Bush.
I think women in general have their eyes on Laura and Theresa and so long as Laura remains Laura, there will be a boost for the President over the last election.
I think Christians in general will be stronger for the President this time around. Kerry isn't nearly as good at faking a Christian spirit as Bill was. Moreover, he does that weird bow with pressed hands in church that makes him disinegnuous as heck.
But it will all be for naught if folks don't vote.
Please, people, just show up and vote on November 2! Bush isn't 5 points ahead, he's 5 points BEHIND! (I'm factoring for 'RAT CHEATING!)
Because it likely does.