Keep an eye on what states they campaign in

National Review Online ^ | 10/14/2004 | Jim Geraghty

[Utah Girl]

KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT STATES THEY CAMPAIGN IN [10/14 11:33 PM]

This bit from tomorrow morning’s Washington Post has some grumbling among Kerry Spot readers:

Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state — save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.

The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.

Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Obviously, "internal polls" for each campaign always seem to contain good news for that particular campaign. I am curious which Bush campaign staffer confirmed to the Post that Bush is losing Florida. Notice none are quoted. Also note that Bush is leading Iowa (7 electoral votes from a Blue state) and if Kerry says Bush is even in Wisconsin, one can conclude he must be running strongly (there's another ten votes Kerry has to make up).

Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.

You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.

The 2000 results were close to dead even - so Bush wants to pick up blue states while Kerry needs to pick up at least seven electoral votes in additional red states.

Note in this article: “In a break from his normal routine, Edwards traveled by bus through Iowa today, before a flight to Des Moines where he will meet Kerry for a joint rally tonight.”

Iowa - a blue state that they‘re committing both candidates to on the same day? Now, look at the recent schedule for the candidates, as I‘ve been able to piece together from news reports and the candidates‘ web sites. (I am not certain that this list is complete.)

Kerry's recent schedule:

Oct. 14 - Nevada (AARP convention), Iowa
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 13 - New Mexico
Oct. 12 - New Mexico
Oct. 11 - New Mexico
Oct. 10 - Florida, Ohio
Oct. 9 - Missouri, Florida
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 6 - Colorado

Oct. 5 - Iowa

Edwards:

Scheduled to go to Minnesota Tuesday
Oct. 14 - Oregon, Iowa
Oct. 13 - Oregon
Oct. 12 - Colorado
Oct. 11 - Iowa
Oct. 10 - Wisconsin

Oct. 7 - New Jersey
Oct. 6 - Florida,
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

Bush

Heading to New Jersey Monday
Oct. 14 - Nevada
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 12 - Ohio, Colorado

Oct. 11 - New Mexico, Colorado
Oct. 10 - Minnesota
Oct. 9 - Iowa, Missouri post-debate breakfast
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 7 - Wisconsin
Oct. 6 - Pennsylvania, Michigan
Oct. 4 - Iowa

Cheney

Oct. 14 - Pennsylvania, Florida
Oct. 13 - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania
Oct. 12 - Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio
Oct. 11 - New Jersey
Oct. 10 - no events
Oct. 7 - Florida
Oct. 6 - Florida
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

If the Kerry camp is so wildly confident that they’re keeping all of the important Gore states, why are they having Kerry and Edwards spend so much time in Blue States?

That's an inordinate amount of time to spend in states that are supposed to already be in the Democratic column. Note also that two of the non-debate-site red states on that list are New Hampshire and Nevada, and neither one alone is enough to put Kerry over the top.

Would a Bush supporter prefer the President to be up more? Certainly. But look at the amount of time he and Cheney are spending in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - all blue states where he's on the offense. Right now the Bushies are defending five states, really - Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. And obviously, neither New Hampshire or Nevada alone would put Kerry over 271, assuming he holds all the Gore states.

Right now, Kerry and Edwards are putting enormous time - a resource where he can't just raise more - into defending blue states. This could change. But for now, Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.

Also, Kerry Spot readers in the New York area ought to pick up the New York Sun tomorrow and check the op-ed page. One of your favorite writers is analyzing why Bush’s chances are better than the polls might have you believe.

[Utah Girl]

The rest of the story from the Kerry Spot on National Review Online. Jim Geraghty mentions the Washington Post story.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Iowa - a blue state that they‘re committing both candidates to on the same day?

Kerry's strategy is too talk and act optimistic and confident, but certain things they do seem to smack of desperation. The Mary Cheney incident is another good example.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Right now, Kerry and Edwards are putting enormous time...into defending blue states...for now, Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.

Yep, Kerry's definately playing defense. That's the first thing I thought of when I watched the Kerry rally in Iowa tonight, especially when Kerry said he had been to Iowa "many, many times".

[april15Bendovr]

[Utah Girl]

This election is starting to remind me of 2002. The polls were not breaking the Republicans way, but they were able to retain the Senate and actually pick up a seat or two. The polls were off. I'm really thinking that the same thing is going on.

[republicandiva]

I'm in Wisconsin. I'm heavily involved in the campaign and have heard from many of the "old timers" in our county (some have been around since the Eisenhower years) that they've NEVER seen this much energy and excitement for a campaign.

We're in one of the largest counties, and if what we're seeing is at all representative of Wisconsin, Bush ONLY LOSES if there's MASSIVE FRAUD!

[Thud]

ping

[gop_gene]

If W were losing in electoral vote abundant OH and FL, common sense would dictate that he and Cheyney would be practically living there. Why would they go to places like OR today, and NJ next week? Kind of strange strategy if you ask me. Go to states where you should have a slim chance of winning, but not in those where you won the last time around and have to hold onto?

So far their itinerary doesn't look desperate like it did with Bob Dole in '96, who, if I'm recalling correctly, late in the game was campaigning in Texas--Texas!--because his lead was narrowing there.

[Jose Roberto]

I will never get tired of saying that we are moving in the right direction. The MSM is in panic trying to slow down Bush because last night Kerry squandered his last chance to knock out Bush. If Bush were so unpopular as the Kerryites are saying, how come he is still ahead in most polls? I bet Kerry would like to be in our position...we are OK but do not get compacent because by election night we should take a 6 point lead in the national polls. Only 18 more days to Kerry's Waterloo.

[docman57]

Missed a State for Bush on the 14th, staying in Oregon tonight after a huge rally in Central Point

[Utah Girl]

I would have loved to see President Bush come to Utah in 2004, but his lead is 37% here. Kerry has no chance in Utah, so we get no national campaign ads here.

[republicandiva]

BTW, both Bush and sKerry are in Wisconsin today (Friday.)

[COEXERJ145]

I would have loved to see President Bush come to Utah in 2004, but his lead is 37% here. Kerry has no chance in Utah, so we get no national campaign ads here.

Yeah, just like Texas. The only Presidential ads we see are the ones running on Fox, CNN, History Channel, etc.

[WOSG]

Utah Girl, that was due to higher GOP turnout because the poll 'turnout models' dont match changed reality.

This is likely the case in Ohio ... IF the Marriage ballot issue drives cultural conservatives to the polls to vote Bush more than Kerry, it can impact turnout by 5%, and that could transform into.

I certainly hope reality is better than the polls, because I see way too many Kerry signs and way too close in the polls.

[no dems]

Bush was in Oregon today (10-14-04) If we lose Ohio and Pennsylvania, it's gonna be tough for the Prez to pull out a win. We need one of them.

[HighlyOpinionated]

Don't give up hope. The polls may say 37% but after the remarks of late by both Dims and their Dimmer wives, those Utah Dims may decide to see the light and vote for Bush.

Miracles do happen. And we are talking about Utah that saw a miracle when the gulls came in and ate up the grasshoppers, right?

Who knows? Gotta wait until November 2.

[no dems]

Hmmmmmm. Didn't think of that, but you're right.

[Utah Girl]

I realize that. But in 2002, it was the first time the Republicans had their 72 hour push for votes. They're doing the same thing this time. The pollsters are basing their results off 2000, not 2002. If the Republicans are as successful as they were in 2002, I think President Bush has this thing won.