Posted on 10/13/2004 5:24:43 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Presidential Battleground Narrows to 10 Swing States
By Robert B. Bluey
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
October 13, 2004
(CNSNews.com) - Judging from current political advertising, the presidential race now rests in the hands of voters in 10 swing states, according to a report released Tuesday from the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.
The dwindling number of swing states -- the liberal America Coming Together put the number at 17 earlier this year -- means only about a quarter of the electorate is seeing the bulk of attention in the waning days of the presidential campaign.
Media markets in 10 states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- are seeing the heaviest advertising. Forty-four of the top 50 markets are located in those states, according to research by Nielson Monitor-Plus.
Missing from the list is Missouri, a state that has voted in sync with the nation all but once during the last century. But when Sen. John Kerry canceled plans to advertise in the state, Missouri lost its status as a battleground and has since moved toward President George W. Bush's direction.
The two states inundated most by advertising -- Florida and Ohio -- offer a combined 47 electoral votes, which both campaigns covet but remain crucial to Bush as they were in 2000. Five of the top 10 markets are in Florida (Miami and Tampa) or Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland and Toledo).
"The end-game of this advertising battle is now purely about reaching the 270 Electoral College votes needed and focusing resources on the handful of states where the result remains in any doubt," said Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project and politics professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.
As a result, some states with only a few electoral votes have been deluged with ads. Both New Mexico and Nevada offer five electoral votes, yet Albuquerque, N.M., and Reno, Nev., rank second and third, respectively, in the number of campaign ads running in their markets.
"Even with our measly five electoral votes, people are very interested in us," said Lonna R. Atkeson, a politics professor at the University of New Mexico. "It's a close race, and we're one of the states up for grabs."
Both Kerry and Bush campaigned in New Mexico on Monday, and Kerry stayed there Tuesday to prepare for the third presidential debate in neighboring Arizona. The state barely went to Democrat Al Gore in 2000 by a margin of just 366 votes.
Nevada wasn't nearly as close four years ago, when Bush won by 21,597 votes. It is more competitive this year, judging from advertising and candidate visits, said Eric Herzik, a professor and interim dean of the University of Nevada at Reno's College of Arts and Science.
"In the past, the only time candidates saw Nevada, and particularly northern Nevada, was when they were flying over on their way or leaving California," Herzik said. "Now, because it's clear California will go to Kerry, [California] gets far less attention, relatively speaking, than Nevada."
Neither Herzik nor Atkeson complained about the deluge of ads. Atkeson, who is conducting a study of her own, said the attention on New Mexico helps inform voters.
"One of the advantages of being in a battleground state is that we're continuously stimulated about the campaign," she said. "Voters here may be learning more about the candidates than they are in states like California or New York."
Florida, the swing state with the largest number of electoral votes, remains the battleground it was during the 2000 race and subsequent recount. University of South Florida politics professor Susan A. MacManus said some of her students are ready for the spotlight to shine elsewhere.
"[The ad campaign] started in the spring, and it hasn't let up," MacManus said. "Usually, people expect some relief in the summer, but there just hasn't been any. You can't even escape to cable [television] anymore because cable is equally targeted."
Running ads in markets like Miami and Tampa isn't cheap. But Joel Rivlin, deputy director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, said each campaign realizes it must reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes whatever way possible.
"The places where [ads] could make a difference are the places where the margin in those states is close enough that ads can matter," Rivlin said. "Ads can only matter really at the margin. They're not going to shift 10 or 15 percent of the vote, but they could swing 5 to 7 percent of the vote, which in some of these states would be enough to win."
(The following data were released by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project based on research from Nielsen Monitor-Plus over the course of Sept. 24 to Oct. 7. For more information, visit the project's website at http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising.)
Top 10 Markets - All Campaigns and Groups in the Presidential Race
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Albuquerque, NM
3. Reno, NV
4. Tampa, FL
5. Green Bay, WI
6. Cleveland, OH
7. Toledo, OH
8. Columbus, OH
9. Grand Rapids, MI
10. Harrisburg, PA
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
Top 10 markets - Bush Campaign (including coordinated expenditures with the RNC)
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Grand Rapids, MI
4. Reno, NV
5. Albuquerque, NM
6. Cincinnati, OH
7. Madison, WI
8. Tampa, FL
9. Las Vegas, NV
10. Green Bay, WI
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
Top 10 markets - Kerry Campaign (including coordinated expenditures with the DNC)
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Albuquerque, NM
3. Tampa, FL
4. Denver, CO
5. Green Bay, WI
6. Columbus, OH
7. Orlando, FL
8. Charleston, WV and OH
9. Harrisburg, PA
10. Davenport, IA
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
Top 10 markets - DNC (independent expenditure)*
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Reno, NV
3. Toledo, OH
4. Cleveland, OH
5. Cincinnati, OH
6. Las Vegas, NV
7. Columbus, OH
8. Philadelphia, PA
9. Minneapolis, MN
10. Albuquerque, NM
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
*The RNC has not aired any spots in this time period independently of the Bush campaign.
Top 10 Markets - Combined Pro-Bush TV Advertisers
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Albuquerque, NM
3. Reno, NV
4. Grand Rapids, MI
5. Madison, WI
6. Green Bay, WI
7. Harrisburg, PA
8. Cleveland, OH
9. La Crosse, WI
10. Las Vegas, NV
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
Top 10 Markets - Combined Pro-Kerry TV Advertisers
Sept. 24 - Oct. 7
1. Miami, FL
2. Albuquerque, NM
3. Tampa, FL
4. Columbus, OH
5. Toledo, OH
6. Cleveland, OH
7. Green Bay, WI
8. Reno, NV
9. Orlando, FL
10. Dayton, OH
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project
bump
See post #2 for where the advertising dollars are going.
???? No New Hampshire?!? I know it's only four electoral votes (plus some bleedover into Maine), but in this close race I can't imagine either campaign would forego a chance to win there.
Apparently campaign internals are showing an advantage, but to whom? My guess would be Bush, but...
Well, they don't include West Virginia as one of the 10 battleground states, either, and yet Charleston, WV checks in at #8 on the list of Kerry ad markets. I would imagine advertising is taking place in NH, but because of the nature of the state, the advertising dollars required to do so don't qualify it for any of these top-money market lists.
New Hampshire (and Maine) appear in another article, "Campaign Ad War Focused on 14 States," which also mentions Oregon and West Virginia. According to the Wisconsin Advertising Project (warning: .pdf file), Portland, Maine, is the #36 media market for "overall number of presidential spots aired, 9/24-10/7," and Manchester, N.H., #47.
You two are likely right - NH is still a battleground (along with OR and WV), but just doesn't make the top ten.
Bookmark that site - everything on it is excellent.
And I was about to post that I forgot to mention that site, where I heard of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, heh.
These advertising budgets indicate that the following (red) states are definitely out of play: Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina. All were thought to be swing states three months ago.
IMO the foreign monitors will be going to the swing states. The OSCE had a meeting with election folks in Ohio. Ohio's Secretary of State hosted the event. The OSCE website noted, "On 8 October Barbara Haering and Giovanni Kessler traveled to Columbus, Ohio for an extensive briefing by key Officials working on the elections in this State. The briefings in Columbus were hosted by Secretary of State for Ohio, J. Kenneth Blackwell."
Here's the link:
http://www.oscepa.org/index.aspx?articleid=+382
And by the way, Giovanni Kessler (Italy) is a lawyer and legislator. He is also a proponent of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and is actively working to include the wording into Italian law. Italy signed the ICC agreement a few years ago.
Of course, the U.S. is slammed for not signing onto the ICC. But the Democrats insist on having this guy on their team.
From the OSCEPA website, ""We agreed with Mr. Hastings to appoint the Italian parliamentarian Giovanni Kessler a deputy of Mrs. Barbara Haering, who will lead the Election Observation Mission for the US elections", Solomon Passy announced.
Here's the the link:http://www.oscepa.org/
Thanks for the post. I'm interceding in prayer for these cities, that God would send His mighty angels and all the Power of His Holy Spirit to each one, that the people would not be deceived but filled with knowledge of His glorious Truth.
Methinks there's a battle in the heavenlies that this is but a reflection of. Our Victory is in prayer.
Amen and God bless America. :o)
Me too!
They might be looking at total dollars of ad spending. That would account for why NH isn't at the top of the list. You can have lots of ads for little cost.
Sorry, but none of us Virginians thought we were really a swing state. :-)
Obviously, the race isn't that close in NH. Popular Sen. Judd Gregg is up for reelection, and will help drag Bush over the finish line.
I thought that NH was Boston-North, which explains why people think that the former Taxachusetts natives will be voting for their favorite son. Everything I see says that NH will be Kerry's. Do you have information to the contrary?
The Boston people moving to New Hampshire are conservatives who live in the conservative part of the state (Nashua-Portsmouth-Manchester) so they can commute to Rt. 128 jobs. The liberal part of New Hampshire is the native area along the Connecticut River valley in the west and north.
Most Ex-Taxachusessites there don't like Kerry.
Bush will win. The state is heavily Republcian overall.
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