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Bush Senior Strategist Matthew Dowd talks about the polls.
Hugh Hewitt's website ^ | 10/12/04 | Hugh Hewitt

Posted on 10/12/2004 9:05:47 PM PDT by WarrenC

Tuesday, October 12, 2004 Posted at 4:00 PM, and updated thereafter.

Bush-Cheney '04 senior strategist Matthew Dowd on CNN's Inside Politics earlier today:

"I think fundamentally, this is going to be a race that is a choice, and I think what you see even in the Gallup poll, your poll, when you ask them on the important issues "Who do you trust more, who do you trust more to deal with Iraq?" the public trusts the president more; "Who do you trust more on the war on terror?" the public trusts the president more; even on the economy which has been a signature issue of the Kerry campaign, it is almost dead even. So I think still, fundamentally, this is a race where the public is going to decide who has better plans, better vision, on these issues. And right now, on two of the three biggest issues, we have an advantage, and on the other one it is basically tied."

I put the question to my callers: What is the choice on 11/2. here's a list of their responses:

Churchill v. Chamberlain

Reagan v. Carter

offense v. defense

advance v. retreat

resolve v. dithering

blunt talk v. nuance

England and Australia v. France and Germany

Allawi in power v. Saddam in power

post 9/11 v. post-Cole

values of America at its founding v. the values of Europe today

leader v. talker

lightning v. lightning bug

White House v. waffle house

Noah's Ark v. Titanic

Lincoln v. McClellan

limits on abortion v. no limits on abortion and taxpayer-funded abortions

parental notification v. no parental notification of teens seeking abortion

tax cut v. tax hike

private sector growth v. public sector growth

cheeseburger v. escargot

honest humility v. prideful arrogance

"Let's roll" v. roll over

Thanksgiving in Baghdad v. Christmas Eve in Cambodia

F-102 v. hot air balloon

September 12 v. September 10

reality v. make believe

big fish v. big fish story

Patton v. Peter Pan

Popeye v. Wimpy

Iceberg v. crushed ice

Battle Hymn of the Republic v. Kumbaya

Pat Tillman v. Michael Moore

D-Day v. Dunkirk

Brit Hume v. Chris Matthews

G-suit v. stuffed suit

national identity v. international anonymity

to be v. not to be

G-man v. g-string

tastes great v. less filling

Gary Cooper v. Inspector Clouseau

Red Dawn v. Reds

007 v. Austin Powers

Osama running from us v. Osama coming at us

adult v. adolescent

Henry V v. Dauphin

Braveheart v. Chickenheart

Jim Brown v. Ricky Williams

hard blow v. blow hard

Heart of America v. Le Car

steak v. pate (Lileks)

hard sharp cheddar v. runny brie (Lileks)

red, white, blue v. tie die

10 gallon stetson v. the magic hat

Saving Private Ryan v. Gigle

rock v. hard face

world series v. world cup

eagle v. magpie

cowboy hat v. blue helmet (radioblogger.com)

bulldog v. poodle

Laura v. Theresa

John Wayne v. Jane Fonda

Ray Lewis v. Jerry Lewis

filet mignon v. ground turkey

safety blitz v. prevent defense

"nuculur" and nuisance (radioblogger.com)

body armor v. body bag

global freedom v. global test

we the people v. we are the world

adverb v. adjective (Adam Youngman)

big rocks v. botox

Toby Keith v. Milli Vanilli

bazooka v. oompaloompa

Bring it on v. time out

backbone v. back flip

Thor v. Loki

action v. a plan

character v. caricature

stars and stripes v. smoke and mirrors

Arnold v. Gray

Hannibal v. Varro

marriage v. same sex marriage

Dirty Harry v. Barney Fife

Alexander v. Darius

"Blood, sweat, toil, and tears" v. "Peace in our time."

"Never, never, never, never, never give up" v. "wrong war, wrong place, wrong time"

Charge of the Light Brigade v. Electric Light Parade (Adam Youngman)

a Bradley v. a Yugo

hard hat v. beret

Lambeau Field v. Lambert Field

101rst Airborne v. 101 Dalmatians

Old Glory v. white flag

road warrior v. road kill

Mr. T v. mystery

logical v. pathological

Jaws v. Flipper

men v. boys

Zorro v.zero

Secretariat v. Frances the Talking Mule

mini skirt v. burkah

victory v. Vichy

God Bless America v. God-less America

compass v. windsock

Predator v. prey

tough calls v. pratt falls

The Star Spangled Banner v. The Internationale

composure v. poser

boots on the ground v. hands in the air

"I'm the greatest!" v. "No mas."

Captain Kirk v. Colonel Klink

safer shores v. manicures

a grand slam v. french toast

tough in the trenches v. courting the frenches

sanity v. vanity

"bring it on" v. "Not in the face! Not in the face."

Spanky v. Alfalfa

fire power v. flower power

bunker busters v. spit balls

Baghdad '03 v. Dien Bien Phu '54

iron v. irony

Navy SEALs v. navy beans

high and inside v. intentional walk

shock and awe v. hem and haw

Semper Fi v. simpering

I will add more entries as I make my way through a flood of e-mail on the subject, but this caller-generated list tells me that John Kerry hasn't got a chance. He's branded himself, with help from Bush-Cheney '04 for sure, as weak and vacillating, a brand that cannot be sold in the post 9/11 America, with the echoes of that day that sounded in Bali, Madrid, Beslan, Taba and a hundred other places of terror and tragedy. "The choice," as Matthew Dowd put it, and as all these callers and e-mailers amplified it, could not be more stark.

Lileks pointed out that if Al Franker were to hold such an invitational --and assuming someone lent him an audience for the day-- those callers would key off of Bush's alleged lack of intelligence or eloquence, or perhaps his faith in God. He's correct, of course, but I think the fact that there could be a list doesn't detract from the significance of this list. Look at the semiotics of Kerry as displayed on this list: French, failure, weak, defeat, effete, elite. And the choice before the ocountry is for president in wartime.

Bush wins 40 states. Maybe more.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; carter; chamberlain; churchill; election; frances; kerry; mule; reagan; secretariat; talking
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Interesting discussion about polls' "internals" and some fun stuff from Hewitt's site
1 posted on 10/12/2004 9:05:48 PM PDT by WarrenC
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To: WarrenC
"Bush wins 40 states. Maybe more."

Not a chance in hell.

2 posted on 10/12/2004 9:07:08 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: WarrenC

I hope President Bush's team already has the list.


3 posted on 10/12/2004 9:07:20 PM PDT by Enterprise (The left hates the Constitution. Islamic Fascism hates America. Natural allies.)
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To: WarrenC

Interesting. I'm hoping this election turns out like 2002 when we were pleasantly surprised at the pickup in the Senate by the Republicans. The polls were all gloom and doom, and then the wins came.

I think the election will be close, which is troubling since there is massive fraud going on. Three more weeks....


4 posted on 10/12/2004 9:09:16 PM PDT by Utah Girl
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To: WarrenC

You're sniffing glue pal.


5 posted on 10/12/2004 9:09:43 PM PDT by zarf (Remember the Gator Flop!!)
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To: zarf

Take your obnoxious post and stick it in your ear.


6 posted on 10/12/2004 9:12:44 PM PDT by WarrenC
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To: WarrenC; All
Can anyone explain this to me? Bush significantly leads or is tied on every issue in this poll yet Kerry is getting all this support in this poll? This means a significant fraction of Kerry's supporters are saying "Yes, Bush is more Honest, a Better leader, more focused etc etc etc but I am voting for Kerry"? I just cannot logically get my mind around how the Internals say one thing and the totals say the exact opposite?
7 posted on 10/12/2004 9:14:15 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: CatOwner

hell.....isnt that another word for DU ?


8 posted on 10/12/2004 9:16:44 PM PDT by kingattax (FreeRepublic leads...others follow)
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To: WarrenC
Take your obnoxious post and stick it in your ear.

http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=10550

9 posted on 10/12/2004 9:17:49 PM PDT by zarf (Remember the Gator Flop!!)
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To: kingattax
"hell.....isnt that another word for DU ?"

Well, if you are going with the literal meaning, I would have to agree with you. But in my statement, it means there are at least 11 states that will vote for Kerry, including the one I live in. Kerry will get at least 200 EVs. I just hope that the Bush campaign is going to spend $100,000,000+ in ads the last few weeks, otherwise, Kerry may gain enough momentum to hit 270 EVs.

10 posted on 10/12/2004 9:20:41 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: MNJohnnie
To me it means one of two things or maybe some of both.

Either people are lying about to the pollsters or the pollsters or "adjusting" the numbers. Many polls adjust their numbers in order to "balance" for various factors. Usually this means moving some votes over to Kerry's side.

Based on several polls, I'm thinking that Democrats are now identifying themselves as Republicans/conservatives but claiming they're going to vote for Kerry. (Heck, the DNC is sending out orders to screw with polls as much as possible.) A poll I saw a few days ago said that 20% of "conservatives" were going to vote for Kerry. Maybe the 1% that make up the Buchananites will just to try and spite Bush, but no way it is near 20%.

11 posted on 10/12/2004 9:26:23 PM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: WarrenC

I tried to call in to Hugh Hewitt with my contributions but the lines were jammed. They are...

The Little Red Hen vs. Chicken Little

kicking ass vs. kissing ass


12 posted on 10/12/2004 9:28:35 PM PDT by Hugin
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To: WarrenC
As a Bush/Cheney '04 billboard in my neighborood says,

"Boots or flip-flops?"

13 posted on 10/12/2004 9:29:29 PM PDT by Palmetto
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To: COEXERJ145
"Based on several polls, I'm thinking that Democrats are now identifying themselves as Republicans/conservatives but claiming they're going to vote for Kerry."

I wonder if there is any way for these pollsters to prove that who they are talking to belongs to the political party they state? If the RATs are indeed doing this, then Bush could very well be comfortably in the lead.

14 posted on 10/12/2004 9:30:46 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: COEXERJ145

I think the poll you're referring to was the USA Today/Gallup poll which had some curious data. It had 24% of the conservatives voting for Kerry, and that Bush only had a 5 point lead overall in the southern states. What a boatload of crap! That's why I'm telling all of you that if you obsess over every single poll out there it's gonna drive you crazy.


15 posted on 10/12/2004 9:33:47 PM PDT by midftfan
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To: midftfan; Torie

It was even more curious than that. Kerry led with those with post graduate degrees. Bush had a lead in every other category of education and Bush was behind overall by a point. Lot of pinheads in that poll. :-}


16 posted on 10/12/2004 9:36:34 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: midftfan; Torie

It was even more curious than that. Kerry led with those with post graduate degrees. Bush had a lead in every other category of education and Bush was behind overall by a point. Lot of pinheads in that poll. :-}


17 posted on 10/12/2004 9:36:58 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Always ask yourself, does this pass the Global Test?)
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To: midftfan
That's why I'm telling all of you that if you obsess over every single poll out there it's gonna drive you crazy.

Amen to that. Poll fatigue is getting bad.

18 posted on 10/12/2004 9:40:09 PM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: midftfan
Yeah, it was the Gallup poll. I just couldn't remember which one. Too many dang polls to keep track of lately.

Not only do I think Gallup is playing with their numbers a bit, probably in response to the Moveon.org attack, but like I said earlier, Rats are claiming to be Republican/Conservative and then saying they're going to vote for Kerry.

19 posted on 10/12/2004 9:43:03 PM PDT by COEXERJ145
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To: jwalsh07

Pinheads like articulate lawyer types who seem to absorb and thrive on detail. They also don't like violence or bible toting types much. Just why Kerry'a pathological lying doesn't bother them much I am not sure. Maybe it is relativism gone bad. Or maybe because they think a liar is better than a dunce, or like my brother, both a dunce and as much as a liar as Kerry. Or maybe a disproportionate number of them have their heads up their asses, although you will never catch me subscribing to that theory, in public at least. It's too populist and too well whatever, for me to go there.


20 posted on 10/12/2004 9:44:31 PM PDT by Torie
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