Posted on 10/12/2004 2:56:45 PM PDT by MarlboroRed
WHICH POLLSTERS WERE CLOSEST IN 2000? [10/12 05:41 PM]
Kerry Spot reader John went back into the Hotline and found their list of the final polls by various organizations.
The final result of the 2000 election: 48 percent for Gore, 48 percent for Bush, 4 percent other. Note that the DUI appeared to have a very late-breaking effect on Bush’s level of support.
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4.
Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point.
Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2.
Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each.
CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3.
Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.
The raw data:
A rundown of every final national poll conducted since 10/31. ^ indicates totals included the allocation of undecideds. Order is Bush, Gore, Nader.
1 Battleground (11/5-6; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 50 45 4
2 Bullseye (10/31-11/2, 11/5; +/- 3.1%) 45 42 4
1 CBS News (11/4-6; 806 LVs; +/- 3%) 44 45 4
1 Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-31; 881 DVs; +/- 3.1%) 45 45 5
2 Fox News (11/1-2; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%) 43 43 3
1 Gallup (11/5-6; 2,350 LVs; +/- 2%)^ 48 46 4
1 Harris (11/3-5; 1,348 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 47 5
0 ICR (11/1-5; 1,141 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 44 7
2 Marist Inst. (11/1-2; 623 LVs; +/- 4.5%) 49 44 2
1 NBC/WSJ (11/3-5; 1,026 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 44 3
2 Newsweek (10/31-11/2; 808 LVs; +/- 4%) 45 43 5
0 Pew (11/1-4; 1,307 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 43 3
1 TIPP (11/4-6; 1,292 LVs; +/- 2.8%) 48 46 4
2 Wash. Post (11/4-6; 1,801 LVs; +/- 2%) 48 45 3
1 Zogby Int'l (11/5-6; 1,200 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 46 48 5
UPDATE: Gerry Daly observes that one pollster ‘called’ over 29% of the 2002 Senate and/or Gubenatorial races for the wrong candidate, despite polling more races than all but one other company.
The average for everybody else was getting about 13% of the races wrong, by comparison?
This pollster? Zogby.
Another pollster polled more 2002 races than any others, but only got one wrong. This pollster? Mason-Dixon.
Undersetimate for loser in 2000 = no way to poll for vote fraud
i thought rasmussen had the closest one for "00? Any idea about them?
Yep, I would think the more pertinent question would be which pollsters were closest in 2002...in a post 9/11 world.
Conventional wisdom was that the Republicans would lose seats because they were in the WH, but just the opposite happened. Did any of the pollsters pick up that trend pre 2002 election results?
From the data above, Mason Dixon was most accurate in 2002.
He completely changed his poll methodology after 2000.
Let's hope is methodology is still goofy today.
Yes, Rassmussen had Bush at 52% and Gore at 43%.
Undersetimate for loser in 2000 == last minute DUI stunt
49-40
He appears to be manipulating the results by a demographic weighting to be determined after the survey is conducted.
Although he didn't do it quite right in 2002, he seems convinced he's got the right kind of sauce simmering this time...I think he's full of it.
"Of All The Steaming Turds Out There, Which Turd Stinks Less?"?
TOP FIVE in 2000!
Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
Maybe some polsters are better at national races(Zogby)
and other polsters are better at statewide races(Mason/Dixon)
Heck, these polls were probably more accurate than the actual voting. The difference between the polling data and the "vote count" is probably very close to the percentage of voter fraud perpetrated by the Dems.
Well, considering that the national race is really 50 state races . . .
My records show that Rasmussen's final poll before the 2000 election was Gore 41.40 and Bush 46.90. Actual election outcome numbers were Gore 48.38 and Bush 47.87. Rasmussen didn't pick-up the late surge for Gore after the Bush DUI revelation.
Has it been determined that the Bush DUI actually had an impact on the campaign?
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