Posted on 10/11/2004 4:39:36 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 95.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 86.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 82.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 7.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 68.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 10.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 2.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 62.5 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.5 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 6.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.5 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 55.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Kansas | 93.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 91.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 24.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 22.9 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 95.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 77.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 66.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 50.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 14.1 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 35.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 7.5 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 87.5 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 59.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 20.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 29.5 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 94.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 93.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 88.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.5 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 4.3 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 87.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 11.5 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 76.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 58.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 295 | 243 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 295 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 243 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.40 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 49.1 and the ask price is 53.5. These average to 51.3.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
We've gotta turn this back around. I can't believe that Friday's debate would have drawn anyone else to Kerry.
Zogby has a poll out this morning showing newly registered voters breaking for Kerry.
Thoughts?
bump for kids' homeschool project
Zogby doesn't even tell you the ratio of Democrats/Republicans that he is polling.
His poll is bogus.
Walk the Vote. Kick off in on the 16th. We have to remind people we need their votes.
in=is
Your calculations are useful in one respect: you will show if there is any arbitrage play available between the direct electoral vote market and the individual state markets. However, you'd have to make a whole lot of trades to make such an arbitrage play so it would be time consuming to try it, not worth it unless you were betting large amounts.
A big player could swing this market. The name of Soros comes to mind.
I don't think that's likely. Firstly, these online markets get almost zero MSM exposure, so nobody cares, there would be no value for soros to waste his time on it. The big name polls get all the air time. Secondly, let soros go ahead and do this, because it's like giving free money to everyone who bets properly.
Ok, new strategy. Amass all conservatives in a big state like california with population density. All the EC votes would go there. Then, we could just do the liberal thing. Relax and not worry about it.
My personal pick is TX. It would be economically viable without the rest of the union, has the right to secede. Kinda hot, but heck we could do it! So anytime liberals shook their fist we could just whine like they do and threaten to pull out. Guess they could call the UN to keep us in check (grins with loaded AK).
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
| 10/11 | 57.1% | 276.4 | 32.4 |
Newly-registered voters turn out poorly under any circumstances.
Given the HUGE bounties which are being paid to solicitors to register Democratic voters this fall, they've got great incentive for digging even deeper into the marginal (and occasianally fictional!) citizenry.
One of the most important post-mortems of the election is going to be George Soros and the other multi-millionaires figuring out exactly how badly they got ripped off by the people they hired to get them registration cards.
I thought both PA and MI were much closer than the odds makers predict??
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