Posted on 10/08/2004 2:02:42 PM PDT by crushkerry
Bush up 1 from yesterday.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm: The tracking polls are favoring the President while the agenda-driven national polls (e.g., AP/IpsosReid and Time) are leaning Kerry. WHY?
The tracking polls (particularly Rasmussen and ABCNews/WashPost) are using VALID and CONSISTENT weights for party affiliation; conversely, and within the last 10 days, MOST of the national polls have radically changed their weighting procedures from a +Republican bias to a +Democrat bias! OBVIOUSLY, such changes have produced concommitant 'swings' in the presidential match-up and job approval/favorability ratings. BOGUS, but PREDICTABLE!!
ONLY THREE MORE WEEKS -- NAME THE POLLING GAME AND GET OUT THE VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT!!
You are on to something...when I see these polls, the most important number to me is the job approval number -- even more so than the top line.
Please read my post at #41!
That's why the AP poll showing Kerry at 50% was so unbelievable.
This is the daily tracking poll that had Bush up by 5 or 6 a few days ago only to get close. We all thought that Kerry had a day of unusually good polling. We've been waiting for that day to drop. We've heard that Bush had two better days of polling from insiders so we're waiting for both of those days to show up in tracking. Seems like one better day has shown up for Bush, doubt if the good day for Kerry has dropped yet, but I'm not sure about that last point.
PolPundit has an excellent analysis of the poll. That particular poll has a bunch of explaining to do. Gets the grade of F.
Thank you for clarifying things. My head was spinning there for a minute but I think I am back to normal. Probably a good time to take the dog for a walk and get some of my nerves calmed down.
Man, forget Mylanta, I'm on Nexium!!!I better stay off caffiene or I'll be climbing the walls by election night!
May G-d bless President Bush tonight as he leads the country, and much of the world, toward liberty and freedom instead of terror and oppression.
Yea, I'm discovering that there's a polling game going on. Much of it isn't about real numbers, it's about the MSM's attempt to seriously mislead us.
Up a point in one day. Seems like good news to me. At this rate he'll be at 76% on election day.
Read this morn that a hard and fast rule is add 1.9% to job approval and you get the actual vote total....Bush is averaging around 52% over all the polls soooooo 52+1.9 =53.9% vot total for W
We need to really start looking at ALL poll takers because the Libs are taking over polling companies as fast as they have taken over the press and the schools.
This seems true. But I actually feel that Gallup, for example, has actaully become more balanced. They used to have a liberal tilt, but now I actually trust them above all the others.
Forget mylanta or caffiene, everybody go make yourselves a good stiff drink!
I smell a troll... three posts that seem to run all the way up to race baiting (without going over) and then this "so any poll that shows kerryleading is biased, while any poll showing bush winning is not. Seems logical enough to me." nonsense
What are you talking about? Gallup shows a very slim lead and nobody questions there validity. The consistent outliers are the questionable ones
i.e. be exactly who he is......
Persona. Ethos. Empathatic while remaining firm.
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